ASIA FX: USD/KRW Still Close To 1470 As Weaker Yen Offsets Equity Bounce

Nov-20 05:31

In North East Asia FX, aggregate moves in FX haven't been large, amidst multiple cross asset trends. USD/CNH probed above 7.1200 but found selling interest. USD/KRW downside has proved fleeting, despite an onshore equity bounce. USD/TWD downside have also proven modest. South Korean and Taiwan shares have surged around 3%, as Nvidia earnings in the US were better than forecast and reduced fears (at least in the near term) around chip/AI bubble concerns. Some offset is coming from higher USD/JPY levels, which is probing through 157.50. The broader USD backdrop still looks supportive amidst firmer yields (although AUD and NZD have ticked higher). 

  • USD/CNH is back to 7.1185/90, so still close to session higher. BBG reported earlier that the authorities are considering fresh measures to boost housing demand. Local equities are higher but gains are modest so far. The USD/CNY fixing edged up but the fixing error was also wider.
  • Spot USD/KRW got to lows of 1465.9 in the first part of trade, as equity sentiment was positive. We remain supported on dips though, with an upside focus on a move back above 1470. Recent highs have been marked around the 1475 region, but this may see fresh supply from exporters and/or asset managers emerge.
  • Spot USD/TWD is a little lower, last near 31.22/23. Earlier we got to fresh multi month highs of 31.26. Focus will be on whether offshore inflows return in large enough size to boost TWD. Note later on we get Taiwan export orders for Oct. 

 

Historical bullets

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Overbought But Uptrend Is Intact

Oct-21 05:25
  • RES 4: 107.400 Round number resistance  
  • RES 3: 107.365 High Jul 7 (cont) 
  • RES 2: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont)
  • RES 1: 107.320 High Oct 17  
  • PRICE: 107.200 @ 06:05 BST Oct 21
  • SUP 1: 107.150/098 Low Oct 15 / 20-day EMA   
  • SUP 2: 106.965 Low Oct 6  
  • SUP 3: 107.030 Low Oct 10
  • SUP 4: 106.995 Low Oct 8 

A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact following recent gains and the latest pullback is for now, considered corrective. Last week’s climb resulted in a break of 107.190, the Oct 5 and 8 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 107.348 next, a Fibonacci retracement point on the continuation chart. Note that the contract is overbought. A deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at 107.098, the 20-day EMA.

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Oct-21 05:23
DateTimePeriodEvent
21-Oct0700SepPublic Sector Finances
21-Oct1000---BOE Saporta Fireside Chat at Islamic Development Bank
21-Oct1130---BOE Bailey & Breeden on Private Markets
21-Oct2015---BOE Mann Fireside Chat at Lazard
22-Oct0700SepConsumer inflation report / Producer Prices
23-Oct1100OctCBI Industrial Trends
24-Oct0001OctGfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
24-Oct0700SepRetail Sales
24-Oct0930OctS&P Manuf / Services / Composite PMI (p)
27-Oct1100OctCBI Distributive Trades
28-Oct0001OctBRC Monthly Shop Price Index
29-Oct0001SepBrightmine pay deals for whole economy
29-Oct0930SepBOE Lending to Individuals / M4
31-Oct0930---ONS Blue Book / Pink Book
03-Nov0930OctS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
05-Nov0930OctS&P Global Services / Composite PMI (Final)

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Oct-21 05:18
DateTimeCountryEvent
21-Oct0800EUECB Lane at Macroeconomics & Finance Conference
21-Oct1000EUGovernment Debt / Government Deficit
21-Oct1200EUECB Lagarde Keynote at Norges Bank Climate Conference
22-Oct1200EUECB de Guindos at Barcelona Real Assets Meeting
22-Oct1325EUECB Lagarde at Frankfurt Finance & Future Summit
23-Oct0745FRManufacturing Sentiment
23-Oct---EUECB Lagarde at Euro Summit in Brussels
23-Oct1430EUECB Lane Award Acceptance Speech
23-Oct1500EUConsumer Confidence Indicator (p)
24-Oct0745FRConsumer Sentiment
24-Oct0800ESPPI
24-Oct0815FRS&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (p)
24-Oct0830DES&P Global Manufacturing / Services PMI (p)
24-Oct0900EUS&P PMIs (p) / ECB Cipollone on International Finance
24-Oct1400BEBNB Business Confidence
27-Oct0900EUECB Consumer Expectations Survey / M3
27-Oct0900DEIFO Business Climate Index
27-Oct0915EUECB Elderson Keynote on Banking Governance