JPY: USD/JPY - Rejects 149.00 As US Yields Collapse On Soft JOLTS
The overnight range was 147.88-149.14, Asia is currently trading around 148.05. USD/JPY again rejected the 149.00 area, helped by a softer JOLTS report which saw US yields move quickly lower. The demand towards 146.00 has been pretty solid all of July and August, keeping us for the most part in a 146.00-149.00 range. The price action looks pretty constructive but I would not be expecting any major extensions until the market has had a look at the NFP on Friday, which given the reaction to JOLTS could be a key driver.
- (Bloomberg) - “Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is heading to Washington on Thursday for tariff talks following last week’s canceled trip."
- “Japanese Investors Face ‘Sea Change’ in Rising Yields, RBC Says. Global currency and interest-rate markets are heading into a massive change as rising Japanese yields are luring domestic investors to park their money at home at the expense of holding foreign assets, according to RBC Capital Markets.” - BBG
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 147.10($970m), 146.50($673m).Upcoming Close Strikes : 146.00($2.16b Sept 5), 147.00($1.09b Sept 5), 146.00($103b Sept 8 ) - BBG.
- CFTC data shows last week asset managers again added to their JPY longs after a consistent period of reduction +76761( Last +71379), leveraged funds though again used the dip to add slightly to their newly built short JPY position -52275(Last -50848). One of them is going to be wrong.
- Data/Event : Weekly Investment Flows
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot 2H Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- South Korea to Sell KRW2.6 tn 30-Year Bonds
- South Korea to Sell KRW2.5tn 30-Year Bonds
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$14 Billion 182-Day Bills
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$62.989 Billion 91-Day Bills
- Bank of Thailand to Sell 65 Billion Thb of 91-Days Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 32D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 92D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 186D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SVBI Bills
- MAS to Sell S$1.8 Billion 252-Day Bills
- MAS to Sell S$15 Billion 28-Day Bills
- MAS to Sell S$21.9 Billion 84-Day Bills
- Philippines to Sell PHP 30.0 Billion 5Y Bonds
- Indonesia To Sell 2028 Sukuk Bonds (PBS030)
- Indonesia To Sell 2027 Sukuk Bonds (PBS003)
- Indonesia To Sell 2029 Sukuk Bonds (PBSG001)
- Indonesia To Sell 2049 Sukuk Bonds (PBS038)
- Indonesia To Sell 2039 Sukuk Bonds (PBS034)
- Indonesia To Sell 187D Sukuk Bills (SPNS10022026)
- Indonesia To Sell 270D Sukuk Bills (SPNS04052026)
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
| 0000GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea CPI MoM JULY |
| 0000GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea CPI YoY JULY |
| 0130GMT | 0900HKT | 1030AEDT | South Korea CPI Ex Food + Energy YoY JULY |
| 0130GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global Hong Kong PMI July |
| 0130GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global Singapore PMI July |
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines CPI YoY JULY |
| 0200GMT | 0900HKT | 1100AEDT | Philippines CPI NSA MoM JULY |
| 0245GMT | 0945HKT | 1145AEDT | China S&P Global PMI Composite JULY |
| 0245GMT | 0945HKT | 1145AEDT | China S&P Global PMI Services JULY |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia GDP QoQ 2Q |
| 0500GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Indonesia GDP YoY 2Q |
| 0600GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | HSBC India PMI Composite JULY |
| 0600GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | HSBC India PMI Services JULY |
| 0600GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | Singapore Retail Sales SA MoM JUNE |
| 0330GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | Singapore Retail Sales YoY JUNE |
| 0530GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | Singapore Retail Sales ex Auto YoY JUNE |
source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
NZD: NZD/USD - Consolidating Above 0.5900
The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5899 - 0.5930, Asia is trading around 0.5910. US Yields slipped lower again, but stocks came roaring back and the USD went nowhere. NZD/USD bounced nicely off its 0.5850 support but would suspect sellers would return on any bounce back toward 0.6000, it looks like we might consolidate within the 0.5850-0.6100 range while we wait for clearer direction.
- NEW ZEALAND: Labour Market Data Likely Deteriorated In Q2. The focus of the week will be the Q2 labour market data published on Wednesday. It is expected to show that it weakened in the quarter after some signs of stabilisation in Q1. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise 0.2pp to 5.3% more than the RBNZ’s 5.2% May projection. If the data print is as weak as or weaker than the Bloomberg consensus, then a rate cut on August 20 is likely.
- (Bloomberg) -- A soft job market is likely to push New Zealand’s unemployment rate to an eight-year high of 5.3% in 2Q25. We expect employment to decline 0.1% quarter on quarter, following a 0.1% rise in 1Q25. Monthly jobs and experimental weekly payrolls data suggest there is downside risk to our already-weak employment forecast.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6000(NZD315m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5970(NZD496m Aug 7), 0.6140(NZD364m Aug 7). - BBG
- CFTC Data shows Asset Managers again reduced their newly built longs in NZD +3903(Last +5034), the Leveraged community reduced their shorts slightly -6250(Last -7328).
- Data/Event : ANZ Commodity Price, Vitality Home Value
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
