JPY: USD/JPY - Finds Demand 154.50 Overnight
The overnight range was 154.51 - 155.35, Asia is currently trading around 155.10. The pair tried lower but has again found decent demand toward 154.50. The market is pricing in the fact that the Yen move looks like it could force the BOJ into action in December. This has stalled the upward momentum and should keep it contained in the short-term but I suspect the market will still look for opportunities to express a long USD at the right levels. Technically USD/JPY is still in an uptrend with the first big support back toward the 153-155 area which should see buyers reemerge. In today's Asian session I suspect we will continue to consolidate within a wider 154.50-156.00 range.
- Bloomberg - Key members of PM Sanae Takaichi’s government wouldn’t try to stop the BOJ if it decides to raise interest rates in December, according to people familiar, a stance that makes a move more likely.
- MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Risks Overcutting As Inflation Lingers. The Federal Reserve will likely be going too far in easing monetary policy if it lowers interest rates again as widely expected next week, RDQ Economics chief economist John Ryding told MNI.
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 155.00($1.94b), 157.00($895m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 155.00($1.22b Dec 8 ), 156.00($1.49b Dec 8 ), 156.00($740m Dec 10) - BBG.
- The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 100 Points
- Data/Event : Household Spending YoY, Leading Index CI
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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NZD: Reaction To Unemployment Rate
NZD/USD went into the data print around 0.5650(-1.0%) and the NZX50 around 13585(-0.15%). “NZ 3Q JOBLESS RATE 5.3%; EST. 5.3%, NZ 3Q EMPLOYMENT FALLS 0.6% Y/Y; EST. -0.2%”- BBG. The NZD has traded a few spreads lower on this data.
- NZDUSD - 0.5645, -1.00%
- AUD/NZD - 1.1490, +0.25%
- NZD/JPY - 86.75, - 1.40%
- NZX50 - 13595, -0.10%%
JPY: USD/JPY - Stalls Above 154.00 As The Yen Is Bought In The Crosses
The overnight range was 153.32 - 153.76, Asia is currently trading around 153.65. The pair has pulled back from the 154/155 area as the Yen gets bought heavily in the crosses on the back of the pullback in risk. While this backdrop plays out I suspect the resistance around the 154/155 area should continue to offer solid resistance. Look for dips to continue to be supported while above 149-150, first support is toward the 151.50/152.00 area and then the more important 149.00-150.00 level.
- MNI BoJ Review-Oct 2025: Focus On Dec Vs Jan Hike Risks: The BoJ held rates steady, as expected, at the end Oct policy meeting. Focus remains on hike risks at the Dec or Jan meetings, with no clear consensus on when the central bank will tighten rates further. Our bias rests with a Jan move, as the central bank seeks more information, particularly on wages, before deciding to act again. Still, a Dec move can't be ruled out. The Q4 Tankan report (out a few days before the Dec meeting) will be closely watched. Market pricing doesn't have a hike priced in until further into 2026.
- MNI POLICY: Ueda Dec 1 Speech Crucial For BOJ Hike Timing. It will be crucial for determining the probability of a rate hike at the Dec 18-19 policy-setting meeting, with a bullish economic and price assessment indicating that Bank executives see a chance of reducing the degree of easy policy at the year’s final meeting, MNI understands.
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 150.65($450m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 155.00($1.81b Nov 6), 155.35($1.38b Nov 6) - BBG.
- Data/Event : Monetary Base
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW2.5 tn 2-Year Bonds
- Vietnam To Sell VND 8.0Tln 2035 Bonds; (TD2535022)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 3.0Tln 2030 Bonds; (TD2530010)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 1.5Tln 2040 Bonds; (TD2540037)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2055 Bonds; (TD2555052)
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$1 Bn 3.17% 2035 Bonds
- Hong Kong to Sell HK$2.25 Bn 2.76% 2028 Bonds
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 94D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 181D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 367D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 31D SUVBI Bills
- Thailand to Sell THB10bn of 2045 Bonds
- China to Sell CNY20 bn 2075 Bonds
