USD/IDR – Rupiah Stable as Markets Wait for US Data.
Dec-06 02:39
- USD/IDR is down at 15,855 in Jakarta morning; versus yesterday's close of 15,860.
- The Rupiah’s move lower in recent days sees it approaching the 20-day EMA of 15,841.
- Bloomberg Asia dollar spot index is down by -0.09% and the Bloomberg Dollar spot index is +0.09% higher.
- USD/IDR one-month implied volatility is up this morning to 6.5325%, versus 6.4875% yesterday’s close.
- Indonesia's 10-year bond yield is at 6.917%
- Indonesia 5 yr USD CDS at 71bps (Friday close 72bp, 5-year low 38bps in 2020).
Headlines
- Indonesia to Go Ahead with VAT Hike For Select Goods: Lawmaker (source: BBG).
- Palm Oil Climbs on Adverse Weather and Better Demand Prospects (source: BBG)
- Surge in Chinese Investment as trade shifts upon Trumps election: Government (source: Indonesia Business Post).
- OECD warns of protectionism weeks before Trump return (source: Jakarta Pos)
Data November 06, 2024.
- Foreign Reserves for November (prior US$151.0bn).
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Historical bullets
US TSYS: Yields Gap Higher Across the Curve
Nov-06 02:38
- The sell off in US treasuries has continued with yields 10-16bps higher across the curve.
- US 2YR +10.5bp, US 5YR +13bp, US10YR +14bp and US30YR +16bps.
- Having held steady at the open, the US 10YR Dec24 Future has dropped dramatically from 110-20 to 109-17 in the Asia trading day.
CROSS ASSET: Trump Related Trades Continue To Gain Ground
Nov-06 02:33
Trump related trades continue to gain ground. Bitcoin is now up above 5%. EUR and JPY down a little over 1.2%, with AUD and NOK not far behind. MXN is down 2.4%, last near 20.60, fresh highs in USD/MXN back to 2022. USD/CNH is above 7.1500, around session highs
- US equity futures are up near 1.0% for Eminis. US yields are up 11-16bps across the curve. The 10yr back to 4.415%. The curve is steeper
- Regional equities are mostly positive at this stage. Hong Kong markets are down (HSI off 1.1%), although China markets are up. The CSI 300 tracking +1% higher.
- Decision Desk HQ still has election election odds firmly in favour of Trump, close to 69%. Also note: NYT's presidential forecast 'needle' has for the first time in the night moved out of the 'tossup' category, with the election now seen as 'leaning Trump' with a 66% chance of victory according to the Times.
US ELECTIONS: DDHQ Calls NC For Trump, NYT Needle Moves To 'Leaning Trump'
Nov-06 02:27
DDHQ has called North Carolina and its 16 electoral college votes for Donald Trump. This is the first major swing state call of the night.
- AP has called two electoral college-heavy states for Republican candidate Donald Trump in the form of Texas (40) and Ohio (17). These calls are not surprises, with both states being viewed as solidly Republican ahead of the election.
- NYT's presidential forecast 'needle' has for the first time in the night moved out of the 'tossup' category, with the election now seen as 'leaning Trump' with a 66% chance of victory according to the Times.
Chart 1. NYT Needle Projections
Source: NYT
