CNH: USD/CNH Rises On Broad USD Gains, CNH/JPY Rebounds

May-27 22:26

USD/CNH tracks near 7.1900 in early Wednesday dealings, with CNH losing close to 0.20% for Tuesday's session, as the USD rebounded across the board. Broader USD index gains were up around 0.50% for the BBDXY and near 0.60% for the DXY. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.1950 on Tuesday. The CNY CFETS basket tracker still edged down to 95.80 for Tuesday (per BBG), despite modest yuan outperformance versus USD gains elsewhere.

  • For USD/CNH, the 20-day EMA resistance point is around 7.2140, while May 20 highs were at 7.2263. May 9 highs rested near 7.2530, which is also close to the 200-day EMA. Recent YTD lows were at 7.1616.
  • Dollar gains were strong against the yen, which lost a little over 1% versus the USD on Tuesday, as Rtrs reported the Japan MoF may shift composition of its current issuance programme away from super-long-end instruments. This drove a sharp fall in long end JGB yields, which also spilled over to US Tsys.
  • This helped a global equity rebound, with US markets outperforming (SPX +2.05%) (were aided by higher US consumer confidence data as well). In Tuesday US trade the Golden Dragon index lost 0.28%. The China to global equity ratio is back to April lows, a CNH headwind all else equal. To recap, the CSI 300 lost 0.54% for Tuesday's session.
  • CNH/JPY rebounded, from lows just under 19.80, we sit back above 20.05 in early Wednesday dealings.
  • The local data calendar is empty until Saturday's official May PMI prints. 

Historical bullets

ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today.

Apr-27 22:24
  • Bank of Korea to Sell KRW500bn 91-Day Bonds
  • South Korea to Sell KRW1.8tn 2-Year Bonds
  • Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000058935)
  • Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 182D Bills (PH0000059404)
  • Philippines To Sell PHP 9.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000060279)

ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today

Apr-27 22:22
  • Singapore Unemployment rate s.a MAR
  • Hong Kong Exports YoY MAR
  • Hong Kong Imports YoY MAR
  • Hong Kong Trade Balance HKD MAR
  • India Industrial Production YoY MAR

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Remains Toward Top End of Recent Range

Apr-27 22:15
  • RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
  • RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
  • RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7 
  • PRICE: 95.785 @ 15:25 GMT Apr 25
  • SUP 1: 95.420/95.300 - Low Feb 13 / Low Jan 14  
  • SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support
  • SUP 3: 94.640 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures extended a recent strong bounce through to the Friday close, putting prices through the top end of the recent range. The confirmed breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high on the continuation contract, reinstates a bull cycle and focuses attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.