CNH: USD/CNH Near 7.2800 As Tariffs/Trade News Awaits
Apr-01 23:47
USD/CNH tracks near 7.2800 in early Wednesday dealings. Intra-session highs from Tuesday came in at 7.2840. CNH lost 0.21% for Tuesday's session. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.2702 Tuesday, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker edged a little higher to 99.05 (per BBG).
- Upside focus in USD/CNH is likely to rest on a move above 7.3000, which marked early March highs. Downside support may be at the 200-day EMA (near 7.2400), while the simple 200-day is further south, close to 7.2400.
- USD/CNH looks too elevated relative to lower US-CH government bond yield differentials, with generally softer US survey data/inflation concerns not painting a great picture for the US economic backdrop.
- Still, as we noted yesterday, as the CNH weakened despite a firmer Caixin PMI print, near term focus will rest on the tariff announcement later Wednesday in the US afternoon. 1 week implied vols have ticked up but from low levels, the 1 month remains fairly benign around the 4.47% level.
- There is also a report due on China compliance with Phase One trade deal that the US-China negotiated during Trump's first term as President (see this link)
- In the equity space, yesterday's onshore markets managed modest gains, while in Tuesday US trade the Golden Dragon index nudged up 0.50%.
- The local data calendar is empty today, with the Caixin services PMI and composite index out tomorrow.
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Sharp Bounce Off Lows
Mar-02 23:45
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 142.73/144.48 - High Dec 9 / High Nov 11
- PRICE: 139.66 @ 15:52 GMT Feb 28
- SUP 1: 138.71 - Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 138.62 - 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 138.00 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
JGBs extended the recent bounce Friday, firming further off recent lows as global equity markets underperformed. The show through 139.99 resistance shows the move could have legs - opening early December highs should the pace be maintained. 144.48 is the medium-term target for bulls.
JGBS: Futures Weaker Overnight On Friday, Light Local Calendar Today
Mar-02 23:32
In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed weaker, -5 compared to settlement levels.
- US tsys rallied back to mid-December yield lows on Friday. Global trade, tariff uncertainty, and data that leaned towards softer inflation remained supportive.
- US tsys posted its biggest monthly gain since July, with short-term yields falling below 4% after benign inflation data boosted wagers on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
- US Core PCE eased to 2.647% y/y from an upward revised 2.865% y/y (initial 2.794%) in Dec, as it starts to be helped by more favourable base effects.
- Meanwhile, Chicago PMI, produced with MNI increased 6.0 points to 45.5 in February. This is the second consecutive monthly gain, taking the reading to the highest level since June 2024, though it remains in contractionary territory for the fifteenth consecutive month.
- USD gained ground after President Trump & Zelenskyy failed to reach an accord, chances of an imminent ceasefire looking less likely.
- Today, the local calendar will see Jibun Bank PMI Mfg.
GOLD: Gold Opens Higher After First Weekly Loss for Year.
Mar-02 23:16
- Gold finished last week down for the first time in 2025, falling by 2.6%.
- Earlier last week, gold hit all time highs of US$2,951.73 and has trended lower since.
- Gold has exhibited its ‘safe-haven’ status given the uncertainty around the implementation of tariffs by President Trump in 2025, which followed on from last 2024 when it performed due to expected rate cuts.
- The moves in recent trading sessions come despite the fundamental reasons for its rally remaining in place.
- The move lower last week still sees gold up over 8% for the year and opens at $2,873.31 in Asian trading follow Friday's close of $2,857.83
- The move lower however sees gold breach eh 20-day EMA of $2,879.36, marking the first breach of this technical level this year.
- The moving averages are still trending upwards, a sign that the bullish momentum remains after eight successive weeks of gains.
- It appears that the US is moving closer to imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China as soon as this week, a move that could see support for gold return.
