CNH: USD/CNH Back Under 7.1900 As USD Rebound Falters, Official PMIs Tomorrow
Spot USD/CNH sits near 7.1880 in early Friday dealings, comfortably off intra-session highs from Thursday (near 7.2100). Broader USD sentiment weakened as Thursday's session unfolded, with US data weaker than expected (downside consumption revisions and higher initial jobless claims), while an appeals court allowed the US reciprocal tariffs to remain in effect at least temporarily. The BBDXY lost a little over 0.40%. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.1859. The CNY CFETS basket tracker rose 0.24% to 96.29 (per BBG).
- For spot USD/CNH, renewed downside focus is likely to rest on a move back towards 7.1616, the recent year to date low. On the topside, yesterday's high fell just short of the 20-day EMA resistance point (close to 7.2095).
- CNH/JPY is back off recent highs, last near 20.05, as yen rebounded through Thursday trade post the Asia Pac close. Global equity sentiment saw US markets end Thursday trade up, but well off highs implied from futures earlier on Thursday.
- The Golden Dragon index rebounded 1.44% in Thursday US trade, its strongest gain since May 12. This followed onshore gains yesterday, while HK markets were up over 1.3%.
- The local data calendar remains empty today. Tomorrow, we get the May official PMI prints. The market consensus is for a tick up in manufacturing (to 49.5 from 49.0) and non-manufacturing (to 50.5 from 50.4).
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (M5) Within Range of Highs
- RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
- PRICE: 96.710 @ 16:04 GMT Apr 29
- SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures continue to circle just below recent contract highs, having cleared resistance on the continuation contract. The rally has taken out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, any reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of a downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.
ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Wednesday
| 0000BST | 0700HKT | 0900AEST | South Korea Mar IP |
| 0000BST | 0700HKT | 0900AEST | South Korea Mar Cyclical Leading Index |
| 0001BST | 0701HKT | 0901AEST | UK Apr Lloyds Business Barometer |
| 0050BST | 0750HKT | 0950AEST | Japan Mar P IP |
| 0050BST | 0750HKT | 0950AEST | Japan Mar Retail Sales |
| 0200BST | 0900HKT | 1100AEST | New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence |
| 0230BST | 0930HKT | 1130AEST | Australia Q1 CPI |
| 0230BST | 0930HKT | 1130AEST | Australia Mar CPI |
| 0230BST | 0930HKT | 1130AEST | Australia Mar Private Credit |
| 0230BST | 0930HKT | 1130AEST | China April PMIs |
| 0245BST | 0945HKT | 1145AEST | China Apr Caixin Manufacturing PMI |
| 0600BST | 1300HKT | 1500AEST | Japan Mar Housing Starts |
| 0600BST | 1300HKT | 1500AEST | Japan Feb F Leading Index |
EUROPEAN DATA: Portugal Delays Key Wednesday Data Releases Due To Power Outage
Portugal is delaying release of its inflation, retail sales and Q1 GDP data from April 30 (tomorrow) to May 2 (Friday) due to the national electricity blackout, per national stats agency INE.
