CHILE: USDCLP Rises 1.2% Amid Slide In Copper Prices And Dovish BCCh
Apr-30 13:27
- The Chilean peso is trading on the backfoot today, amid a sharp fall in copper prices and following the dovish tilt from the BCCh yesterday. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected domestic March activity data have provided little support to the peso, as the economy rebounded from temporary weakness in February.
- USDCLP has risen by 1.2% in early trade to 958, piercing initial resistance at the 50-day EMA at 954.29. Above here, focus will be on 973.65, the Apr 16 high.
- The move in the peso comes as copper prices have fallen by over 6% today to $457/lb amid reports on Bloomberg that traders in China were squaring off their positions ahead of the 5-day Labour Day holiday. For copper, the move undermines the recent bullish theme and suggests that the rally between Apr 7 - 23 has been a correction. Further weakness would expose $436.00, the Apr 10 low.
- Meanwhile, latest data reveal that Chile copper production rose by 9.1% y/y in March to 477,049 tonnes.
- After extending the pause in its easing cycle yesterday, as expected, the BCCh noted the strength of recent domestic activity indicators but still struck a dovish tone amid the global uncertainty. It is expected to resume its easing cycle later this year (see the MNI review here), while Finance Minister Marcel has said this week that he anticipates a package to cushion the effect of the trade war.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Pierces Key Support
Mar-31 13:25
- RES 4: 5896.39 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5778.68 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5651.25 Low Mar 21
- PRICE: 5573.25 @ 14:13 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 5559.75/52.00 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday and the contract maintains a softer tone. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
EQUITIES: Stoxx 50 Futures Base Around Technical Support Level
Mar-31 13:22
Euro Stoxx 50 futures only managed a limited break of next support at 5,160.00, basing at 5,157.00 before recovering to ~5,190.00.
- News flow remains relatively limited, with tariff worry and cross-market cues dominating for much of the day.
FOREX: EURAUD Extends Session Gains, Approaches Fresh Five-Year Highs
Mar-31 13:18
- The strong rally for EURAUD in recent weeks has seen the cross rise the best part of 6% from the late February lows. While spot had been moderately unwinding this steep appreciation across late March, prompting a drift back to the 1.7050 region, the subsequent resumption of gains (up 0.62% today) keeps the underlying bullish trend firmly intact.
- This has been highlighted by the inability to close back below the 20-day exponential moving average, which was briefly pierced last week. This average moves up to 1.7110 and continues to mark initial support for the cross.
- On the topside, 1.7419 (March 11 high) is the key level, a breach of which would place EURAUD at levels not seen since the early onset of the pandemic in 2020. Above here, 1.7694 represents the next resistance, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2022 downswing.
- A reminder that we have the RBA meeting during the APAC session on Tuesday. Our full preview of the decision is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/42nEpYC
