CANADA: USDCAD Plateaus After Testing Resistance

Jul-06 11:36
  • USDCAD has only nudged higher today, +0.1% at 1.3044 after surging 1.3% higher yesterday on USD strength.
  • It fleetingly cleared a bull trigger at 1.3079 (May 17 high) yesterday, a clear break of which would strength bullish conditions and open 1.3113 (Nov 23, 2020 high).
  • USD strength has outweighed supportive Can-US yield differentials, potentially trimming the build in net longs seen in latest CFTC data as of Jun 28.
  • The solid US docket sees plenty of potential drivers ahead, headlined by ISM services and the FOMC minutes but also with Fedspeak, JOLTS and the final PMI, with growth implications/interpretations very much in focus.

Source: Bloomberg

Historical bullets

OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline

Jun-06 11:35
  • EUR/USD: Jun07 $1.0600(E1.4bln), $1.0730-35(E1.1bln); Jun09 $1.075-55(E1.0bln)
  • USD/JPY: Jun07 Y127.50($1.2bln); Jun09 Y129.80-00($1.2bln)
  • NZD/USD: Jun08 $0.6315(A$1.1bln)

BONDS: EGB/Gilt - Recover from the lows

Jun-06 11:16
  • EGBs and Bund have recovered from the lows, with Bund bouncing on receiving interest after testing the noted 1.3% Yield level, tested 1.297% high.
  • Italy continues to outperform on the ECB FT piece.
  • BTP/Bund spread sits 4.7bps tighter at the time of typing.
  • Gilt underperforms, as its catches up with the European price action, after the UK were closed last Thursday/Friday.
  • Gilt/Bund spread is 2.5bps wider.
  • Main news for the UK, is Boris Johnson facing a vote of no confidence, from18.00BST.
  • Looking ahead, there are no data or speakers of note for the session, with all the attention turning to the ECB this week.

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Going for 150bps of hikes

Jun-06 11:08
  • ERZ2 98.62/98.25ps 1x1.25ps, bought for 5.5 in 22.5k.
  • Going for 150bps of hikes