CANADA: USDCAD Nearing Post FOMC Highs But CAD Outperforms
Dec-15 12:41
- USDCAD has pushed to a session high of 1.3608, close to yesterday’s post FOMC statement pre-Powell high of 1.3612
- Despite the quick increase, a firmer USD sees CAD outperform on the crosses, notably appreciating more than 1% to Antipodeans in a more meaningful rolling over of recent AUDCAD strength seen since the first miss for US CPI in the Oct report (Nov 10).
- USDCAD technicals: further off support at 1.3470 (former trendline resistance) whilst resistance remains 1.3700 (Dec 7 high).
- Solid schedule ahead, with potential ECB spillover plus Canadian housing data and a deluge of US data including retail sales.
AUDCAD rolling overSource: Bloomberg
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RUSSIA: Putin Approval Rating Up In Latest Levada Centre Poll
Nov-15 12:36
The latest approval ratings from the Levada Centre show public approval for President Vladimir Putin rising to 79%, an increase of 2% on the September reading.
- President Putin Approval Rating: Approve: 79% (+2), Disapprove: 19% (-2). +/- vs. 22 - 28 September 2022. Fieldwork: 20 - 26 October 2022. Sample size: 1,604
- Trust in Politicians: Putin: 44% (+4), PM Mikhail Mishustin: 17% (+3), Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: 13% (-2), Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu: 12% (-2). No one: 19%. +/- vs. 22 - 28 September 2022. Fieldwork: 20 - 26 October 2022. Sample size: 1,604
- Should be noted that the lack of independent media and concerns about the motives of pollsters in Russia can often suppress anti-gov't views in surveys. Nevertheless, the Levada Centre approval rating is viewed as one of the more effective gauges of public sentiment in Russia.
Chart 1. President Putin Approval/Disapproval Rating, %
Source: Levada Centre
- The invasion of Ukraine saw a notable spike in approval for Putin, but this ticked down in September as the Ukrainian counteroffensive began to push back against Russian troops and the gov't enacted a 'partial mobilisation' of reserve troops, bringing the conflict home for many Russian families.
- The continued loss of ground in the south of Ukraine and the loss of the city of Kherson could prove another dent to Putin's support. However, it remains to be seen if this impacts Putin's standing with the public.
US BONDS: BNY Mellon See Fed Pricing as Gone Too Far
Nov-15 12:18
BNY Mellon see market pricing as having "gone too far":
- They write that after November’s Fed meeting, market pricing aligned with their view: terminal rates at (or slightly above) 5% for most of 2023. But, since the October CPI print the market likes the “slower” part of the Fed’s message, but seems to be disregarding the “higher” and “longer” parts.
- BNY Mellon think this is mispricing, and don’t think that CPI, by itself, is sufficient to render the Fed’s thinking irrelevant just two weeks after the market took it fully onboard. They don’t think that in the short- to medium-term it will lead to a dramatic and sustained decline in inflation.
EQUITIES: Walmart Upgrades Outlook, Authorizes New Share Buyback Scheme
Nov-15 12:17
Greater market share, looser inventory pipeline behind Walmart's upgraded outlook:
- Continued gain in grocery market share
- "Significantly" improved inventories, exp. to improve further next year
- Approves new $20bln share buyback scheme
- Flags that their view incorporates an FX headwind of $4.1bln for 2023 as well as lower gross profit margin
