FOREX: USD Modestly Higher, Yen Pares Losses Post FinMin Warning
Dec-24 01:35
Early G10 FX trends are skewed towards the USD, albeit with modest moves overall. AUD and NZD are seeing some slight underperformance (which followed some outperformance on Monday). Rhetoric around FX moves has crossed from the Japan FinMin as well.
- The reaction so far from USD/JPY has been limited. We were last 157.15/20, close to unchanged for the session. Earlier highs were at 157.39.
- Japan FinMin Kato reiterated recent concerns on FX - "JAPAN FINMIN KATO: CONCERNED ABOUT RECENT FX MOVES, RTRS" "JAPAN FINMIN KATO: RECENTLY SEEING ONE-SIDED, SHARP FX MOVES" and that the authorities will take action against excessive moves.
- USD/JPY is still sub post BoJ highs (157.93), with these comments highlighting intervention risks as we approach the holiday period. Earlier the BoJ minutes from the Oct policy meeting came and went with little market reaction.
- AUD/USD sits down around 0.20%, last near 0.6235/40. Downside focus will rest on the 0.6199 low seen recently. The RBA minutes from the Dec meeting were out earlier. Upside risks to inflation have diminished but it was still too soon to be confident that inflation is sustainably at target.
- NZD/USD is also lower, last near 0.5635/40. Also, still up from recent cycle lows.
- Trends are biased in favour of the USD elsewhere, but aggregate moves are modest. In the cross asset space, US equity futures are down a touch, along with US yields, but again overall moves are modest.
- There is little in the way of further risk events for the remainder of today's Asia Pac session.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Backdrop Building
Nov-22 22:45
- RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
- RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 95.920 @ 16:46 GMT Nov 21
- SUP 1: 95.760 - Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 95.750 - Low 27 Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Prices hit a fresh pullback low at 95.760 across the global rates sell-off, extending losses on the break through 96.080 support. This confirms the downside bias, with support undercutting at 95.750 below ahead of major support of 95.480. For any corrective recovery to take hold, markets need to retake the 96.00 handle on a closing basis.
US TSYS: Underperforming Global Peers In Twist Flattening Move
Nov-22 20:10
Treasuries closed Friday little changed, underperforming global peers.
- Futures traded within Thursday's ranges, with data having little lasting impact: November flash services PMI was much stronger than expected and the highest since March 2022, though soft employment and output price inflation metrics softened the impact.
- Elevated final November UMichigan survey long-term inflation expectations saw Treasuries hit the worst levels of the day, but the move reversed.
- The limited move in yields stood in contrast to pronounced gains in Europe, where weaker-than-expected PMIs renewed concern over regional growth and boosted ECB rate cut pricing. That helped boost Treasuries in overnight trade, but as noted, the US rate move subsided.
- Futures volumes remained robust (2.4M TYZ4), though again it was largely quarterly roll-related.
- The curve twist flattened on the day, and Friday's moves left 10Y yields just 2bp lower on the week.
- Latest levels: The Dec 24 T-Note future is up 5/32 at 109-21, having traded in a range of 109-16.5 to 109-26.5. 2-Yr yield is up 1.8bps at 4.3665%, 5-Yr is down 0.9bps at 4.2948%, 10-Yr is down 1.8bps at 4.4041%, and 30-Yr is down 1.1bps at 4.5906%.
- MNI's weekly US macro wrap is here (PDF).
- Next week's schedule is condensed by the Thanksgiving holiday, with highlights including FOMC Minutes (MNI Preview here - PDF) and GDP/PCE data.
OPTIONS: US Options Summary
Nov-22 19:59
Friday's US rates/bond options flow included:
- SFRZ4 95.50/95.56/95.62c fly, bought for 0.75 in 5k total.
- SFRF5 95.75/95.62/95.50p fly, bought for 3 in 5k.
- SFRM5 96.50/97.00cs, sold at 5.25 in 8k.
- SFRM5 97.00/97.50c strip vs SFRZ5 97.50c, bought the strip for flat in 5k
- SFRZ5 96.125 ^ sold at 87.5 in 500
- 2QH5 97.25/97.50cs, bought for 1.5 in 5k
