FOREX: USD Index Holding Modest Weekly Gain, Yen Ticks Lower

Mar-21 01:46

The USD BBDXY index sits a touch higher in early Friday dealings, last around 1268.10, which if sustained would be a modest +0.20% gain for the index this week. Yen weakness is the main focus point so far today, after outperforming through Thursday's session. 

  • USD/JPY was last near 149.10/15, up close to 0.25% versus end Thursday levels. Japan markets have returned after yesterday's holiday. On the topside, 150.15 is the March 19 high. Today's session high has been 149.19.
  • Earlier we had national CPI data for Feb, which was a touch above market expectations. The headline and core metrics are comfortably above 2%y/y, but services inflation lost some momentum and a core metric which excludes all food and energy was fairly benign at 1.5%y/y. Hence the print may not shift near term BoJ thinking despite the headline beats.
  • US equity futures are ticking up in early dealings, but only modestly. Eminis were last +0.16%, Nasdaq futures +0.25% higher. Asia Pac regional markets are mixed in the first part of Friday trade. Higher Japan markets are consistent with higher USD/JPY levels. US yields are closed to unchanged in the first part of Friday trade.
  • AUD/USD is little changed, last just above 0.6300. NZD/USD is up to 0.5760/65, but still close to Thursday lows. We had Feb trade figures earlier, showing the month recorded a trade surplus, but FX sentiment didn't shift.
  • There is little in the way of further data outcomes today, leaving markets on headline watch. 

Historical bullets

CHINA PRESS: Cross-border Receipts And Payments Maintain A Surplus

Feb-19 01:45

Banks executed cross-border receipts and payments totalling USD608 billion and USD635 billion on behalf of customers in January, according to State Administration of Foreign Exchange data. However, the figure turned into a surplus by late January. The net cross-border capital inflow under the goods trade reached a record high of USD70 billion, while foreign investors net purchased yuan bonds, SAFE reported. In January, banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales amounted to USD181 billion and USD226 billion, SAFE added. (Source: Securities Times)

CHINA PRESS: Local Governments Expect Low Fiscal Revenue In 2025

Feb-19 01:45

A total of 29 provinces expect their fiscal income growth to be lower than 5% y/y, with most seeing growth between 2-3%, Yicai.com reported, adding that Tibet and Xinjiang anticipated 10% growth. The continuous decline in PPI has weakened the tax-paying capacity of key industries, while property adjustments and U.S. tariff threats added pressure to revenue intake, stated Yuekai Securities Chief Economist Luo Zhiheng. Luo noted many regions have limited room to revitalise assets and resources to boost non-tax revenue after already making efforts for several years.

CHINA PRESS: China To Implement A More Proactive Fiscal Policy - Pan

Feb-19 01:45

The Chinese government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy this year, according to People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng. Pan, speaking at the Emerging Market Economies Seminar in Saudi Arabia, said emerging markets should follow multilateralism and expand South-South cooperation. The IMF needs to accelerate quota share reforms to reflect better emerging markets, Pan added.