FOREX: USD Extends Weekly Advance, Relative AUD Resilience

• The US dollar trades with a positive tone to start the week, as the negative impulse from the failed talks in the Middle East dents risk sentiment and fosters some safe haven demand for the greenback. With that said, the impact on FX markets has once again been limited, with the DXY just 0.3% higher on the session as questions remain regarding Trump’s intention to place a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.
• This is translating to moderate declines for the majors, as the likes of EUR, JPY and GBP trade in line with broader dollar sentiment. For EURUSD, last week’s rally fell just shy of Fibonacci resistance at 1.1746 and spot has traded back below 1.17 on Monday, keeping the bearish medium-term trend intact for now.
• USDJPY trades just 25 pips shy of the psychological 160.00 mark again, keeping the Mar 30 high and bull trigger of 160.46 in focus. Core fixed income dynamics continue to place pressure on the yen, especially as the market may be questioning the short-term hiking trajectory for the BOJ, who meet on April 28. Offsetting this narrative are the lingering concerns of investors surrounding MoF intervention.
• Last Friday saw a fresh cycle high for EURJPY by 1 pip at 186.88. A sustained break above the January highs and a key medium-term resistance would confirm a resumption of the technical uptrend.
• NOKSEK has rallied well amid the higher oil prices and risk off, while a Norwegian wage norm agreement also keeps upside potential in wage growth to Norges Bank projections, and keeps a May Norges Bank hike in play.
• In emerging markets, EURHUF is trading at its lowest level since 2022 as the scale of Tisza party's victory alongside Viktor Orban’s swift and notably measured concession has underpinned this morning’s rally in Hungarian assets.
• Canada building permits, US home sales are scheduled in today's light data calendar. ECB's Guindos, BoE's Taylor, RBA's Hauser and Fed's Miran will speak.

SFRZ6/Z7 recent trade sees ~2.7K given at -21.5 over a few clips.

A sharp pullback in WTI futures last week is for now, considered corrective. The contract traded through the 20-day EMA, at $97.88. Attention for now is on support at the 50-day EMA, at $86.29. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to highlight a stronger short-term reversal. On the upside key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $117.63, the Apr 7 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Recent gains in Gold appear to be corrective, however for now, a short-term bull cycle remains intact. The metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at $4781.2. This signals scope for an extension towards $4914.9, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would open the $5000.0 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4554.2, the Apr 2 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

• WTI Crude up $7.59 or +7.86% at $104.14
• Natural Gas up $0.03 or +1.17% at $2.677
• Gold spot down $32.36 or -0.68% at $4719.19
• Copper down $1.5 or -0.25% at $592.85
• Silver down $1.59 or -2.1% at $74.3175
• Platinum down $9.99 or -0.49% at $2040.14