FOREX: USD - BBDXY Looking To Challenge 1185-1190 Support

Risk has pulled back across the board after a fairly weak open this morning. Asian equities have all opened well as has Bitcoin. This has seen a market that started under pressure paring back those early losses and turning positive.

{ESA Index} - S&P - 6610, +0.10%

{NKY Index} - Nikkei 53655, +1.0%

{BBDXY Index} - BBDXY 1217, +0.10%

{CLA Comdty} - WTI $111.85, +0.25%

{XBTUSD Curncy} - Bitcoin 68900, +1.87%

The BBDXY is currently trading around 1217, +0.15% in the Asia-Pac session. The USD failed to get a foothold above 1220 last week, can it have another go if risk comes back under pressure ? First support is back toward 1206-1210 then the 1196-1201 area looking for the move higher to regian momentum.                       

• zerohedge on X: Iran Threatens "Complete And Utter Annihilation" Of OpenAI's $30BN Stargate Data Center In Abu Dhabi"  
• Kuppy on X: “Literally no one in the mkt seems to care that Hormuz has been shut for a month, but if they start hitting datacenters..”
• Oguz Erkan on X: “If Trump hits Iran’s power plants, Iran will hit gulf countries’ oil fields, refineries, and desalination plants. Oil will go to $150. If oil hits $150, we’ll likely have a global recession, says Blackrock CEO”  https://x.com/oguzerkan/status/2040886460232970714?s=20

• The BBDXY Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 6.40 Points

  Fig 1: BBDXY Daily Chart

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

The Long View(@HayekAndKeynes) posted a thread on why Trump is not walking away after the best possible solution for all seems to have failed.

• "My base case last week was a Trump withdrawal, with the rest of the world stepping in to stabilize. This was the best possible path out of this situation in my humble opinion."
• "It does look like Trump tested that path. He signaled a pullback while implicitly expecting NATO and a broader coalition to secure the strait. They utterly failed to deliver. The UK was one of the few willing to actually engage militarily. Parts of Eastern Europe showed some willingness, but with limited capacity. Core Western/Central Europe leaned the other direction—more open to negotiated access (including tolerating things like Iranian-imposed tolls) rather than using force. This left Trump quite frustrated and forced to go it alone. There was no coalition of the willing. Only the fears of the timid."
• "Iran, for its part, has played this stage tactically well. By selectively allowing passage for “neutral” vessels, they’ve created an off-ramp that reduces urgency for collective action. Countries were heavily incentivized. That weakened coalition formation."
• "So now the decision set narrows: either force the issue and reopen Hormuz, escalate kinetically on the way out. Both paths carry the same underlying risk: short-term disruptions morph into a structurally longer outages if strikes extend to Iranian supply or spill over into broader Gulf infrastructure via retaliation."
• "I hoped deeply (maybe even to the point of delusion) we could avoid that path. There is still time for a deal but I don’t think Trump will just walk away at this point. TACO is a funny little phrase designed to irritate Trump but any serious observer should recognize there has been very little sign of cowardice in his second administration. He is focused on bringing his vision of the world to life."