FOREX: USD - BBDXY Looking To Build On Break Above 1205, M/E Adds To Tailwind

The USD/JPY range today has been 156.55-157.18 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 157.15, +0.30%.  The pair continues to find buyers on dips and has bounced this morning as both Oil and Treasuries react to Trump’s response to the Iranian’s. The BOJ will be disappointed with the limited retracement their intervention has achieved. The fact that they have shown they are willing to back up their previous selling though and seemingly drawing a line in the sand toward 160 should keep the Yen bears at bay in the short-term. On the day, the first support is toward 154.50-155.50 and then the 152.00-153.00 area. I suspect the market will be fading this move between 157.25-158.25 initially and looking to reload for another potential wave from the BOJ.

• “USD/JPY’s early advance to start the week is unlikely to extend far, given that Scott Bessent is visiting Japan to meet Prime Minister Takaichi and colleagues with the yen expected to be on the table for discussion.” - BBG
• "GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER TWO 25 BP RATE CUTS EACH IN DECEMBER 2026 AND MARCH 2027 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN SEPTEMBER AND DECEMBER THIS YEAR - [RTRS]"
• CFTC Data up to 05/05/2026 shows Asset Managers reducing their very newly built short Yen position, -24492(Last -24492). The Leveraged community did the same, reducing their own larger core shorts, –61340(Last -88543).
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 155.00($691m), 156.00($1.72b) 160.00($1.12b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 155.00($2.18b May 14), 156.00($1.59b May 14), 159.50($1.77b May 13) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 124 Points

Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Below is a selection of key recent onshore media highlights for Indonesia ICYMI :

MINING (ANTARA): Safeguarding the promise of equity in downstreaming

https://en.antaranews.com/news/415269/safeguarding-the-promise-of-equity-in-downstreaming?utm_source=antaranews&utm_medium=desktop&utm_campaign=top_news

INDONESIA SEAS (ANTARA): Indonesian seas must be managed by local fishermen: Prabowo

https://en.antaranews.com/news/415216/indonesian-seas-must-be-managed-by-local-fishermen-prabowo

REGIONAL TIES (ANTARA): Indonesia launches business group to boost Philippine trade

https://en.antaranews.com/news/415199/indonesia-launches-business-group-to-boost-philippine-trade

FUEL PRICES (JAKARAT GLOBE): Shell Indonesia Resumes Fuel Sales as Diesel Prices More Than Double

https://jakartaglobe.id/business/shell-indonesia-resumes-fuel-sales-as-diesel-prices-more-than-double

The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.7219-0.7240 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.7225,-0.25%. Iran has responded to the US with a “10-point” message, and President Trump does not like it. Where does this leave us, still in limbo with the probability of renewed fighting increasing by the day as is potential boots on the ground. This again makes it really tough to build any significant risk when the backdrop can change so drastically from day to day. Until we get a confirmed deal signed and put into practice I suspect this choppy market will continue. On the day, I suspect the AUD bulls will be nervous and will be looking for this 0.7170-0.7200 area to continue to provide some support. A move back below here and this break higher will have been rejected and we could drift back into its previous choppy range.

• MNI AU - AU-US 10Y Diff  Mid-Range Ahead Of Tomorrow’s Federal Budget : The cash ACGB 10-year yield is unchanged on the day, with the AU-US 10-year spread at +59bps, ahead of tomorrow's Federal Budget.
• MNI AU - AUSTRALIA: Higher Commodity Prices Likely To Drive Better Deficit Profile. The Federal budget for FY27 is announced on Tuesday 12 May with expected improvements in the deficit forecasts due to higher commodity prices. There have been headlines around what it will include and how it is likely to work against the RBA's goals of reducing demand and inflation. According to local press reports, it will contain plans to increase defence & health spending, increase business tax relief, and change disability spending, capital gains tax and negative gearing
• CFTC Data up to 05/05/2026 shows Asset managers maintaining their recently acquired longs, +42834(Last +43311). The Leveraged community has started to add to their own core longs, +58994(Last +48299).  
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.7200(AUD709m), 0.7300(AUD719m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.7100(AUD1.18b May 13), 0.7200(AUD845m May 13), 0.7350(AUD1.69b May 14) - BBG
• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 61 Points

Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P