ASIA FX: USD/Asia Lower, But CNH Lags

Most USD/Asia pairs are lower, albeit with CNH again underperforming. USD/CNH has largely been range bound, with the weaker expected Caixin services PMI weighing at the margin. 1 month USD/KRW is lower, even with onshore markets shut today, the pair last at 1315. Other pairs have been more muted but still a modest USD/Asia downside bias. Still to come today is Taiwan CPI.

• USD/CNH is currently just above 6.9100, tracking recent ranges, despite the 0.20% pull back in the BBDXY. Onshore equities are weaker, while the Caixin services PMI suggested growth momentum cooled further.
• USD/IDR hasn't seen much downside post earlier losses. The pair got to 14653, but we now sit higher near 14670, little change from closing levels yesterday (14680). Yesterday's lows were under 14600, which marked fresh YTD lows in the pair. On the topside recent highs have been just above 14700. • Earlier Q1 GDP came out close to expectations, y/y at 5.03% (4.97% expected), while q/q was -0.92% (-1.00% forecast). The detailed looked reasonably firm, with private sector consumption up 4.54% y/y. The data calendar is quiet until the start of next week (FX reserves for Apr print).
• Philippines Apr inflation came in below market expectations, +6.6%, (7.0% forecast and 7.6% prior). However, it was close to the mid-point of the BSP's expectations (6.3-7.1%). Headline inflation is moving off early the 2023 peak (8.7% y/y in Jan). We saw a continued slowdown in both food and transport costs. CPI was negative (-0.2%) for the second straight month. Still, core inflation is only just down off multi-decade highs, printing at 7.9% y/y for Apr, versus 8.0% in Mar. Moreover, official comments from National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Balisacan stated that the risks to the inflation outlook remain tilted to the upside. The BSP made similar comments post the release. USD/PHP has tracked lower, last at 55.25.
• The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) firmed and now sits a touch below its pre MAS levels from mid April. We now sit ~0.8% below the top of the band. USD/SGD is under pressure today, the pair is down ~0.3% following broader greenback trends. We last print at $1.3240/50 the lowest level in the pair since 14 April. The pair has ticked away from its 20-Day EMA ($1.3323) after breaking below the measure on Wednesday, bears first target the low from 14 April at $1.3204. Bulls look to target high from March 10 at $1.3576. March Retail Sales rose 4.5% Y/Y firmer than expected 1.1% fall.