US TSYS: US Yields Weary of Gilt Contagion, Eyes on JGB Re-Open

The report Bahrain is calling for force to be used to open the Straits of Hormuz has added to the soft open from Trump's renewed threats to hit Iran infrastructure. Oil has opened higher and US futures have opened soft after the USD started this morning on the front foot.

• {COA Comdty} - Brent - $111.05, +1.92%
• {CLA Comdty} - WTI - $114.85, +2.95%
• {ESA Index} - S&P futures, 6579, -0.40%
• {NAQ Index} - NASDAQ Futures, 24035, -0.40 %

The NZD/USD opens just below 0.5700 in early Asian trading. Risk opens under pressure on Trump threats and Bahrain looking for force to be used. On the day, the first resistance is around 0.5750-0.5780 and then the more important 0.5850-0.5900 area. The Bears will be hoping the move lower begins to gains momentum, though as always I am wary of Asian Monday moves. The target for this break lower is the 0.5500-0.5600 area.

• CFTC Data up to 31/03/2026 shows Asset Managers beginning to add back to back their  reduced short positions in the NZD, -27635(Last -25012). The Leveraged community added slightly to their own newly newly built shorts, -17798(Last -16730). 
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data:  0.5680(NZD589m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5500(NZD300m April 8 ), 0.6050(NZD482m April 8 ) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 57 Points

• Data/Event: 

  Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

The AUD has opened lower on the Asian open it is currently trading around 0.6885, -0.15%. CFTC data shows the longs continue to hold in there even as it tried to break below 0.6900. It should be a quiet day today unless we see any follow through on Trump's threats. The first resistance is around the overnight highs 0.6950-0.6970 and then the more important 0.7050 area. Initial support on the day is toward the 0.6830-0.6850 area it is likely to tread water in our session.

• CFTC Data up to 31/03/2026 shows Asset managers adding slightly their recently acquired longs, +46722(Last +45299). The Leveraged community pared back ever so slightly their own core longs, +43837(Last +45029).
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6730(AUD402m), 0.6900(AUD330m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6750(AUD1.02b April 9), 0.6900(AUD1.46b April 9), 0.7000(AUD1.33b April 7) - BBG

• The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 62 Points

  Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P