SECURITY: US Welcomes E3 Decision To Trigger Iran Sanctions Snapback - Rubio

Aug-28 15:05

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says in a statement that the US “welcomes” the decision by European countries to initiate the ‘snapback’ of UN sanctions on Iran.

  • Rubio says the E3 “have laid out a clear case of Iran’s continuing 'significant non-performance' of its nuclear commitments…” Rubio notes that the E3 could have initiated snapback at any point since 2019, “but chose instead to first pursue intensive outreach and engagement.”
  • Rubio says: “Over the coming weeks, we will work [to] complete the snapback of international sanctions and restrictions on Iran… At the same time, the United States remains available for direct engagement with Iran… I urge Iranian leaders to take the immediate steps necessary to [comply with nuclear demands]”
  • Reuters reports that Iran’s foreign ministry statement that Tehran “strongly rejects and firmly condemns the E3's move to return UN sanctions on Iran.” Reuters adds that Russia and China urged in a joint UNSC resolution that all parties to "immediately resume negotiations".
  • French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said: “This measure does not signal the end of diplomacy: we are determined to make the most of the 30-day period that is now opening to engage in dialogue with Iran.”
  • There is limited optimism a new deal can be struck in the 30 days before sanctions take effect. WSJ reports: “Iran recently allowed some U.N. atomic agency inspectors back into Iran [but IAEA] chief Rafael Grossi said Wednesday that Iran hadn’t agreed to facilitate inspections of the key Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites...”
  • Iran’s response is expected to include its withdrawal from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT).

Historical bullets

GLOBAL MACRO: Several Key Deals Still Outstanding

Jul-29 14:47

Lutnick stated the US are not rushing to secure more trade deals ahead of Friday's deadline, and stressed Trump's openness to negotiating after the deadline passes. We make some tweaks to the latest list of still-outstanding key deals:

  • Brazil: Communication ongoing; Alckmin & Lutnick negotiating, looking for delay
  • Canada: Negotiations at an "intense phase"
  • Chile: Expects copper tariff exception, officials in meetings today
  • China: Stockholm talks pause for lunch; extension seems likely
  • India: Preparing to face higher US tariffs of 20-25% temporarily, US delegation in mid-August. Expects deal by Sept/Oct
  • Mexico: Aims for tariff agreement this week
  • Norway: Tariff talks "still ongoing"
  • Russian trade partners: Secondary tariffs could follow 10-12 day Ukraine ceasefire demand
  • Singapore: US 'non-committal' on 10% tariff staying, rising or falling
  • South Africa: Remains committed to solution, but is working on response plan
  • South Korea: Proposes shipbuilding project, meeting with Bessent on July 31st
  • UK: Not expecting steel deal during Trump's UK visit
  • Global: Baseline RoW tariff will be 15-20%

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 10Y Ultra Buy

Jul-29 14:47
  • +3,500 UXYU5 113-04, buy through 113-03.5 post time offer, DV01 $304,000.
  • The 10Y Ultra trades 113-04.5 last (+18.5) vs. 113-05 high

BONDS: Gilt Futures Follow USTs Higher Post JOLTS; Bunds Lag

Jul-29 14:46

Gilt futures have traded in a volatile fashion today, currently extending to fresh session highs of 91.74 (+30 ticks today). This narrows the gap to resistance at 91.83 (20-day EMA), clearance of which would expose the July 22 high at 92.15.

  • UK headline flow has been light today, with this afternoon’s rally seemingly UST-driven following the net dovish US JOLTS report. UST futures are currently also at fresh session highs.
  • Gilts notably outperform Bunds, with the 10-year Gilt/Bund spread now 3bps tighter on the session at 192.5bps. Continued digestion of the EU-US trade agreement (which could still be subject to change) alongside last week’s hawkish ECB decision appears to have contained Bund yields throughout today’s session.
  • Tomorrow’s UK data calendar is light, with Eurozone data the main regional focus. Q2 flash GDP data is due from France, Germany, Italy and the Eurozone, with flash inflation data due from Spain. MNI’s inflation preview will be released shortly.
  • A reminder that the US refunding announcement, BOC and FOMC decisions are also due tomorrow.