FED: US TSY TO SELL $58.000 BLN 3Y NOTES FEB 10, SETTLE FEB 17

Covered call buyer picks up where they left off prior to the holiday's: 

• +50,000 TYH6 114 calls, 14 ref 112-15 (exp 2/20) total volume over 64,900 (open interest 56,410 coming into the session).
• +10,000 TYG6/TYH6 113 call spds 17
• +20,000 TYG6 114 calls, 3 vs. 112-12.5 to -13
• +5,000 TYG6 114 calls, 2 ref 112-12

• Stocks are trading stronger despite the spike in geo-political risk following US capture of Venezuela's Maduro over the weekend, DJIA marking new record highs early Monday (49,119.68 at the moment), Energy and Financial sector shares leading advances.
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 727.97 points (1.5%) at 49112.67, S&P E-Mini Futures up 59.5 points (0.86%) at 6960.5, Nasdaq up 225.8 points (1%) at 23462.97.
• Energy sector shares apparently surged on hopes they may benefit from future oil infrastructure reconstruction in Venezuela and potential recovery of assets by Chevron and ExxonMobil (while crude gained slightly in comparison: WTI +.98 at 58.30): SLB Ltd +9.50%, Halliburton +8.82%, Valero Energy +8.31%, Phillips 66 +6.01%, Marathon Petroleum +5.40% and Chevron +4.88%.
• Financial sector shares followed suit, broken down in two categories (services and banks): Coinbase Global +7.25%, Robinhood Markets +6.19%, Moody's +5.71%, Block +5.26% and Interactive Brokers Group +5.21%; Goldman Sachs Group +4.18%, Bank of New York Mellon +4.02%, Citigroup +3.93% and Blackrock +3.69%.
• Reminder, the next earnings cycle kicks off in earnest next week with Bank of NY Mellon, JPM reporting on Tuesday January 13, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.
• Conversely, Utilities and Health Care sector shares underperformed in the first half: Constellation Energy -3.81%, NRG Energy -3.68%, Sempra -3.28%, NiSource -2.80% and Vistra -2.79% weighed on the former. Pharmaceuticals weighed on the Health Care sector: AbbVie -4.53%, Eli Lilly & Co -3.79%, Gilead Sciences -3.48%, Biogen -2.83% and Amgen -2.34%.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q4 2025 has been marked down to 2.7% Q/Q SAAR (2.68% unrounded) from 3.0% in its prior update on Dec 23 (2.97% unrounded) and 4.3% in Q3.

• The major data development between then and now was today's relatively soft ISM Manufacturing index, which saw the growth forecast for equipment investment downgraded to -3.2% Q/Q SAAR from -2.4% (and +5.4% in Q3), while personal consumption expenditures were downgraded to 2.4% from 2.7% (3.5% in Q3).
• Combined, those two downgrades shaved off 0.26pp from the overall GDP estimate.
• We get the next GDPNow update on Thursday, after the publication of ISM Services, international trade, and wholesale trade among other data points.