US Treasury Auction Calendar

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Borrowing Ests $1.6T In Line, Sets Stage For Tsy Upsizing -- Treasury's marketable borrowing estimates for the Oct-Dec 2023 (Q4) and Jan-Mar 2024 (Q1) quarters came in roughly in line with expectations.

• The 2Q total of $1.592T ($776B Q4, $816B Q1) was in line with MNI's and analysts' estimates, though there had been some lingering concerns about an upside surprise potentially stemming from more pessimistic fiscal expectations or higher-than-expected cash balance targets.
• The Q4 total was downwardly revised $76B from August's refunding process: that's more or less in line as expected reflecting the timing of tax receipts landing in the quarter (financing requirements dropped $80B total), with the end-Sep TGA cash balance target unchanged at $750B.
• The Q1 figure was fairly straightforward as well, with the TGA cash balance seen level at $750B, and the $548B estimated financing need in line with expectations.