TARIFFS: US Softens India Trade Agreement Amid Farm Protests

Feb-12 09:00

Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal told reporters that 90-95% of Indian farm products have been kept out of the pending US-India trade deal amid major nationwide protests today, per Reuters. Earlier, Goyal said negotiators are working to finalise and sign before the end of March. 

  • Goyal's comments come amid uncertainty over the final shape of the agreement, announced by US President Donald Trump on February 2. This week, a claim in a White House fact sheet that India “commits” to buy over USD$500 billion worth of US products has been softened to “intends to buy.” The fact sheet now omits the term “agricultural” from the list of product categories covered by the pledge, and pulses, a critical agricultural product for Indian farmers, have been excluded entirely.
  • IndiaToday notes that the factsheet now does not state that “India will remove its digital services taxes.” Instead, states that “India committed to negotiate a robust set of bilateral digital trade rules..."
  • Indian officials have also declined to formalise a commitment to halt Russian oil purchases, instead appearing more likely to continue a slow phase-out of Russian oil. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday that he has "not heard such a statement from anyone else [other than Trump], including Prime Minister Modi and other Indian leaders."
  • The chief economist at GlobalData said on the agreement revision, “The [Indian] government seems to have played its cards well, drawing a hard line on the politically sensitive agriculture sector while also giving the US a promise to deepen trade ties without any binding commitment.”

Historical bullets

SONIA OPTIONS: Large Call Buyer

Jan-13 08:56

SFIZ6 97.00c, bought for 7.5 in 13.5k.

JAPAN DATA: Largest Japanese Net Sales Of Gilts In 14 Years In November

Jan-13 08:51
  • Japanese investors sold net 351bln of Gilts in November, the largest single-month net sale in 14 years, and the first month of sales since February.  Pre-Autumn Budget uncertainty was the likely driver of these dynamics.
  • Elsewhere, Japanese investors reversed October’s net sales of German bonds, with JPY423bln of net buying. This brings year-to-date flows into German bonds back into positive territory.
  • There was a second consecutive month of net sales of French bonds (JPY226bln after JPY576bln in October). Like the UK, we suspect that uncertainty around budget negotiations (which is ongoing today) was a contributor here.
  • Japanese investors were net buyers of Italian and US bonds in November.
  • Domestic bonds and the yen have sold-off in tandem in recent sessions, amid prospects of PM Takaichi calling a snap election to strengthen her mandate and deliver on expansionary fiscal promises. The weakening currency may deter foreign investors from engaging in Japanese assets on an unhedged basis. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank have noted that “We are increasingly concerned that higher yields are more revealing of stress, than of genuine value in the eyes of domestic investors”.  Timely weekly flows data has seen a pullback in the Japanese buying of foreign bonds and foreign buying of Japanese bonds.
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SONIA OPTIONS: Call Condor vs Put

Jan-13 08:50

SFIZ6 96.65/96.75/97.05/97.15c condor vs 96.25p, bought the condor for half in 3k.