BONDS: US Roll Pace Update: All But Done
May-28 20:13
A final update on estimated June/Sept futures rolls which are all but complete: * TUM/TUU - 2 Yr. ....
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Inventories, House Prices, JOLTS Job Openings
Apr-28 20:12
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 29-Apr 0830 Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$147.8B rev, -$143.0B)
- 29-Apr 0830 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.3%, 0.7%), Retail MoM (0.1%, 0.3%)
- 29-Apr 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.2%, 0.3%)
- 29-Apr 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.46%, 0.35%)
- 29-Apr 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.568M, 7.5M), Rate (4.5%, --)
- 29-Apr 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (92.9, 87.6)
- 29-Apr 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (-11.3, --)
- 29-Apr 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
US TSYS: Near Late Highs, Curves Bull Steepening, Borrow Estimates Rising
Apr-28 20:10
- Treasuries look to finish near late session highs Monday, curves bull steepening (2s10s +4.412 at 52.737) after decent front end buying in 5s and 2s10s steepener blocks/crosses.
- Jun'25 10Y futures breach resistance at 111-25 (50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg) to 111-30.5 high (+14), focus on next resistance at 112-12 (61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg).
- Underlying bid as Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Survey for April -- the weakest since the start of the Covid pandemic in 2020, as tariff uncertainty weighed heavily on manufacturers in the district while price pressures remained elevated.
- Meanwhile Treasury's latest borrowing / financing requirements estimates were slightly higher - but broadly in line with - MNI's estimates: $514B for the Apr-Jun quarter, and $554B for the Jul-Sep quarter.
- A lack of concrete details surrounding the US administration’s progress on trade deals has allowed the broader dollar weakening trend to resume, Bbg US$ index at 1219.81 (-6.24) after the bell.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Cycle Remains Bearish
Apr-28 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4131 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3987 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3862 @ 16:53 BST Apr 28
- SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, it remains bearish. A fresh cycle low last Monday highlights a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3987, the 20-day EMA.
