STIR: US Rates Consolidate Yesterday’s Questioning Of Ceasefire
Apr-09 10:18
* US rates are little changed overnight, consolidating yesterday's large paring of the rally seen ...
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STIR: Next Fed Rate Cut Still Not Seen Until Sept After Oil Pullback
Mar-10 10:18
- US rates on net consolidate yesterday’s dovish reaction to President Trump stating that the Iran conflict would end soon although not this week, having reversed a modest sell-off in Asia hours.
- Data picks up a little today, highlighted by the weekly ADP report before existing home sales, but tomorrow's CPI remains in clear focus on this front (MNI Preview https://mni.marketnews.com/3MRRRzm)
- FF cumulative cuts from 3.64% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 4bp Apr, 11bp Jun, 18.5bp Jul, 28.5bp Sep, 34.5bp Oct and 43bp Dec.
- SOFR futures are up to 6 ticks firmer on the day in Z6/H7 contracts but that’s only because the Trump headlines came after the settle.
- The terminal implied yield of 3.17% (U7, -4bp) has eased away from the high end of the ytd range of 2.94-3.285% for closes.
AUSTRIA AUCTION RESULTS: 2.80% Sep-32 / 3.20% Feb-36 RAGBs
Mar-10 10:12
| 2.80% Sep-32 RAGB | 3.20% Feb-36 RAGB | |
| ISIN | AT0000A3NY15 | AT0000A3RVH9 |
| Issue Amount | E978mln | E748mln |
| Allotted | E850mln | E650mln |
| Avg yield | 2.792% | 3.097% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.40x | 4.60x |
| Bid-to-issue | 2.08x | 4.00x |
| Avg Price | 100.037 | 100.865 |
| Low Price | 99.970 | 100.830 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.823 | 100.552 |
| Prev avg price | 100.531 | 100.860 |
| Prev low price | 100.823 | |
| Prev mid-price | 100.553 | |
| Previous date | 11-Feb-26 | 10-Feb-26 |
AUD: Optimism on War Ending and RBA Hauser Boost AUD
Mar-10 10:07
- The news late Monday that the US is ahead of schedule and the Middle East conflict could come to an end very soon has provided a notable boost to risk sentiment, weighing on the US dollar and boosting risk sensitive FX.
- The Australian dollar is the best performer across G10, with an additional hawkish impulse from RBA's Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s most recent rhetoric. He said, “It’s fair to say, further increases of prices from Iran, if that is what we end up seeing, and that is a big if, is not a helpful development from the perspective of our policy discussion.”
- AUDUSD has remained resilient, continuing to hold above its 50-day EMA, and is again starting to approach a cluster of significant resistance between 0.7125-50. On the topside, 0.7208 represents a notable target, the 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg.
- In the crosses, EURAUD (shown below) has continued its downward trajectory, with this morning’s lows essentially bridging the gap to the 2025 lows at 1.6358. The pair is now down 7% on the year and scanning out on the chart, the next key level is located at 1.60 which provided excellent support across 2024.
- Elsewhere, AUDNZD has risen to a fresh cycle high at 1.1987, and hovers just below the psychological 1.20 mark, the highest level since 2013.
