STIR: US Rates Back To Most Hawkish End Of The Week’s Range
Nov-14 16:33
- The aforementioned recovery in risk sentiment has seen US rates reverse their earlier rally, taking them back to levels as US desks filtered in.
- Fed Funds cumulative cuts from 3.88% effective (after a latest tick higher): 12.5bp Dec, 23bp Jan, 33bp Mar, 39.5bp Apr and 55bp Jun.
- SOFR futures are back to ranging between -0.015 (H6-M6) and -0.005 (Z6 onwards).
- The terminal implied yield of 3.11% (H7) is within the 3.065-3.16% range for closes over the past two weeks driven by labor releases.
- No data releases today have limited drivers to broader sentiment, and a hawkish Schmid (’25 voter, dissented favoring a hold last month) won’t have surprised - we think he will argue for another hold in December.
- Still to come today, Logan (’26, hawk) and Bostic (non-voter, surprisingly retiring in Feb). Logan said shortly after the the Oct FOMC decision that she would have preferred to hold rates steady and would find it difficult to cut rates again in December. Bostic recently called for holding rates until inflation is moving to 2% and sees price pressures persisting until mid-to-late 2026.
- There is still nothing concrete on revised data schedules, certainly of any note. The BLS said yesterday “it may take time” and the BEA and Census Bureau are still working on it, whilst indications remain that we’ll get the September nonfarm payrolls report next week but to be confirmed.
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SECURITY: US Edges Closer To Imposing New Penalties On Russia
Oct-15 16:16
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters, “anyone purchasing Russian energy is subsidizing attacks on the Ukrainian people,” per Reuters. Bessent’s comment comes as the US appears to be edging towards imposing new penalties on Russia, and the Trump administration weighs up selling Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles.
- Earlier today, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at the NATO defence ministerial meeting in Brussels, “If this war does not end, if there is no path to peace in the short term, then the United States, along with our allies, will take the steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression.”
- US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker told La Repubblica yesterday, “Tomorrow, the US will make an important announcement regarding arms supplies to Ukraine… There are almost—I don’t want to say unlimited possibilities—but certainly there are many consequences for not reaching a peace agreement that could be used against the Russians.”
- Politico reports that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) “left the door open Tuesday to voting on a long-stalled Russia sanctions bill as soon as this month. He didn’t commit to putting it on the floor — noting he still has to coordinate strategy with the White House — but said he believes the issue is ‘pretty ripe.’”
- US Senators are also working to set up a bipartisan meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alongside his White House meeting with Trump on Friday.
US TSYS: Extending Lows Coincides With EU Public Contract Headlines
Oct-15 16:14
- Treasuries extending lows - through early overnight levels, coinciding with EU headlines that the EU is discussing "preferential treatment to give domestic firms bidding for public contracts worth about €2.5 trillion ($2.9 trillion) a year," Bbg.
- Note, however, 10Y Bund also declined and is rebounding. Currently, Tsy Dec'25 10Y contract trades 113-09.5 (-3.5), yld tapped 4.0359% high; curves flatter: 2s10s -2.675 at 52.260, 5s30s -2.631 at 99.664.
- Initial technical support at 112-26 (20-day EMA) followed by the 50-day EMA at 112-16. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support.
- Cross asset: Bbg US$ index -3.09 at 1211.35, stocks claw off lows: DJIA up 106.35 points (0.23%) at 46,375.71, S&P E-Minis up 31 points (0.46%) at 6,716.5, Nasdaq up 165.2 points (0.7%) at 22,684.25.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU Officials Comment on France's Fiscal Situation
Oct-15 16:03
EU officials comment on France's fiscal situation - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
