OPTIONS: US Options Roundup - Apr 17 2026

• RES 4: 0.7284 High Jun’22
• RES 3: 0.7256 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing   
• RES 2: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7187 High Mar 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7083 @ 16:21 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 0.6973 50-day EMA and key support
• SUP 2: 0.6944 Low Mar 3  
• SUP 3: 0.6897 Low Feb 6
• SUP 4: 0.6834 Low Jan 23

A bull trend in AUDUSD remains intact and price is trading above key support. The support level to monitor is 0.6973, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the current bullish theme. The moving average set-up is in a bull mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.7208 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. 

Our initial post-PPI take that core PCE estimates might still round to 0.4% M/M for February may be at risk of rounding lower. The median of the below six estimates is 0.37% M/M (vs 0.41 pre-PPI) whilst the average is 0.30% M/M (vs 0.39). 

• TD Securities: 0.22 (vs 0.31 post-CPI)
• Goldman Sachs: 0.31 (vs 0.34 post-CPI)
• JPMorgan: 0.37 (vs 0.42 post-CPI)
• Nomura: 0.38 (vs 0.38 post-CPI)
• BofA: 0.40 (vs 0.43 post-CPI)
• Morgan Stanley: 0.40 (vs 0.42 post-CPI)
• It’s an unusually wide range to estimates with now both CPI and PPI reports to hand and with import price details typically only worth 1-2bp of tweaks to estimates.
• A reminder that core PCE inflation saw two strong months with 0.36% M/M in both January and December, although today's PPI portfolio management & investment advice series alone suggests this could be revised 3bps higher for Jan and 3bps lower for Dec. 

• Treasuries briefly pared losses after the FOMC held rate steady on a near unanimous vote (11-1), Miran dissenting - but extended lows as Chair Powell discussed economic projections in light of effect of higher oil prices.
• Powell pours cold water on the possibility of a revision to the Fed's Communications policies, including the Dot Plot, which was being mulled last year: "we looked carefully at many aspects of the SEP and of our communications, and there just weren't, there weren't any ideas that had very broad support on the committee."
• Treasuries lower to start the day after higher than expected PPI inflation metrics (coupled with reports several Iranian gas fields were attacked) - Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency notes that Iran will hit enemy sites there were previously thought to be safe, highlighting energy infrastructure as a target in reaction to the Israeli attack on the South Pars gas field. This provides further demand for oil and gas, support for the USD and pressure for bonds and equities.
• Currently, TYM6 -17.5 at 111-14.5 (session low), the next key support at 111-06+, the Jan 20 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important medium-term bearish development. Curves bear flattening: 2s10s -3.268 at 48.590, 5s30s -4.416 at 100.486.
• Projected rate cut pricing much cooler vs. late Tuesday lvls (*): Apr'26 -.5bp (-1.1bp), Jun'26 at -2bp (-5.6bp), Jul'26 at -5.5bp (-10.6bp), Sep'26 at -9.3bp (-16.7bp), Oct'26 -11.5bp (-20.1bp). The first 25bp rate cut back out to July 2027.
• Look ahead to Thursday: Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, 10Y TIPS R/O