AMERICAS OIL: US OIL: November 21 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
US OIL: November 21 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
WTI crude is down on the day and set for a 3.5% loss on the week over talk of a potential 28-point peace plan the US is trying to push forward on. Some of the losses were moderated after Bloomberg headlines that Ukraine and European allies reject key parts of US plan.
- The US push for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is offsetting uncertainty over any supply disruptions caused by the start of the sanctions on Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil.
- Zelenskiy said [regarding the 28-point peace plan] “this is one of the most difficult moments in our history. Ukraine faces a crucial decision: lose its dignity or risk losing a key partner." Says he will not betray Ukraine's national interest.
- Trump also said he would not pull off Russia oil sanctions. There was no anticipation a reversal was ever in play at this point.
- US sanctions could leave nearly 48mbbl of Rosneft and Lukoil crude oil on tankers while seeking alternative destinations, Bloomberg said.
- Near term crude options are currently the most bearish since mid-October after a surge in put volatilities this week.
- Citgo’s 175k b/d Corpus Christi, Texas, refinery is undergoing a restart following planned maintenance, the company said in a community alert Nov. 21.
- US refiners are expected to have about 645kb/d of capacity offline in the week to Nov. 21, according to IIR Energy cited by Reuters.
- Growing South American diesel demand is likely to support PADD 3 refiners for the medium term, despite diverging trends for South America West Coast and East Coast clean product arrivals, Vortexa said.
- Diesel cracks continue to pull back from recent highs and set for a net decline on the week amid speculation surrounding the US plan for Russia-Ukraine peace. However, cracks remain strong overall, and above start of month levels, amid concern for tight supplies due to refinery outages, ongoing Russian energy infrastructure strikes and as US sanctions on the Russian producers start.
- WTI Jan futures were down 1.6% at $58.06
- WTI Feb futures were down 1.5% at $57.81
- RBOB Dec futures were down 1.9% at $1.88
- ULSD Dec futures were down 3% at $2.46
- US gasoline crack down 0.5$/bbl at 18.13$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 1.5$/bbl at 42.51/bbl
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AUDUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal Signal
- RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6545 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6505 @ 15:38 BST Oct 22
- SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
- SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. Price action on Oct 14 continues to highlight a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. Note that MA studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6545, the 50-day EMA. A breach of 0.6440, the Oct 14 low, would cancel the reversal pattern and reinstate a bear threat.
AUDUSD TECHS: Potential Reversal Signal
- RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6545 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6485 @ 15:46 BST Oct 22
- SUP 1: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
- SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
AUDUSD remains in consolidation mode. Price action on Oct 14 continues to highlight a possible reversal pattern - a hammer candle. It signals the end of the bear cycle that started Sep 17. Note that MA studies have remained in a bull-mode position during the latest bear leg, highlighting a dominant M/T uptrend. Initial resistance is 0.6545, the 50-day EMA. A breach of 0.6440, the Oct 14 low, would cancel the reversal pattern and reinstate a bear threat.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Volumes gradually picked up Wednesday, SOFR/Treasury options remained mixed. Underlying Tsy futures modestly higher (TYZ5 113-26 +2) while SOFR futures trade mixed. Projected rate cut pricing at/near steady vs. late Tuesday levels (*): Oct'25 at -24.7bp (-24.2bp), Dec'25 at -49.1bp (-49.2bp), Jan'26 at -64.2bp (-64.2bp), Mar'26 at -78.2bp (-78.2bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +4,000 SFRZ5 96.12/96.25 put spds, 2.0 ref 96.375
- +5,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.00/96.06/96.12 broken put condors, cab
- +5,000 2QX5 97.06/97.25 call spds, 4.0 ref 96.99
- +5,000 SFRH7 97.50/98.00 call spds, 11 ref 97.095
- -5,000 SFRH6 96.50/0QM6 96.62 put strip, 20.0
- +5,000 0QZ5 96.87/97.00 put spds 1.25 over SFRZ5 96.31 put
- +6,000 SFRZ5 96.18/96.25/96.31/96.37 call condors, 1.75
- +5,000 SFRH6 96.75/96.87/97.00/96.12 call condors, 1.75 ref 96.63
- +5,000 SFRX5 96.12/96.25 2x1 put spds, 0.75
- -5,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.37/96.50/96.62 call condors, 7.25
- +10,000 0QU6 98.00 calls, 7.5
- Block/screen, +100,000 SFRH6 96.31/96.37 put spds, 1.5 vs. 96.625 to -.64/0.06% (Mar'26 options expire March 13, 2026 - the Friday before the FOMC policy annc on March 18.
- 2,500 SFRH6 96.43/96.62/96.68 put trees
- Treasury Options:
- +20,000 FVZ5 110.5/111.5 call spds, 10
- -15,000 TYZ5 114/116 call spds, 28
- Update over -45,000 TYZ5 114 calls, 33 vs. 113-22/0.42% appr 5.03% vol
- 1,150 USF6 118/119/120 call flys
- 1,500 TYX5 112.5/113/113.25/114.25 broken call condors
- 2,500 TYZ5 118 calls, ref 113-24.5
- -1,500 TYZ5 118/121 call strips, 3 vs. 113-22/0.10%
- -3,800 TUZ5 103.5/104/104.37 broken put flys, 5 vs 104-14.87/0.18%
- +5,000 USZ5 123/125 1x2 call spds, 1 net vs. 119-08 to\ -09
- -2,000 TYX5 110.25 calls, 2.5-2.0
- -2,500 TYZ5 114 calls, 35
- 4,000 TYX5 113 puts, 1 last
- 2,500 TYX5 114/114.25 call spds vs, 6 vs. 114-00/0.14%
- 8,000 TYX5 112.5 puts, 1 ref 113-17/0.05%
- over 7,000 Wed wkly 10Y 113.5 puts, expire today
