OIL: US OIL: December 31 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
Dec-31 19:32
US OIL: December 31 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower
WTI Oil prices are lower to end the year on a muted day of trading ahead of the New Year break. EIA data showing crude inventories fell slightly last week provided modest short-lived support. Crude oil imports fell to the lowest since Feb 2021 while Gulf Coast utilization rose to its highest level since June 2023.
- The US added Venezuela-linked oil tankers to sanctions list including Della, Valiant, Nord Star and Rosalind.
- EIA data showed crude oil inventories fell 1.93 mln barrels, distillate inventories rose 4.98 mln barrels, gasoline inventories rose 5.85 mln barrels, refinery utilization rose 0.10% last week.
- Russia and Ukraine struck each other’s Black Sea ports overnight, damaging infrastructure including an oil refinery. A drone attack on the Russian coastal city of Tuapse damaged a berth at the port and equipment at the local refinery.
- A major independent refiner in eastern China has received a combined 11 million metric tons (equivalent to 220,000 barrels per day) in the first two batches of 2026 crude oil import quotas.
- OPEC+ members — scheduled to meet by video conference on Jan. 4. — are expected to stick with a plan to pause further supply hikes amid growing evidence of the surplus, according to three delegates.
- Crude inventories in ARA region fell 3.5m bbl in week ended Dec. 26 to 49m bbls according to Genscape.
- Italy’s Sarroch refinery is restarting after power issues following a lightning strike at the weekend it said via a statement.
- Crack spreads are lower after the EIA reported large builds in both distillates and gasoline while the four-week average for product supplied is slightly higher y/y.
- WTI Feb futures were down 0.9% at $57.42
- WTI Mar futures were down 0.9% at $57.23
- RBOB Jan futures were down 1% at $1.71
- ULSD Jan futures were down 1.4% at $2.12
- US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 14.59$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 1$/bbl at 31.67/bbl
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USDJPY TECHS: Trades Through Support At The 50-Day EMA
Dec-01 19:30
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 156.58/157.89 High Nov 28 / 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 155.29 @ 16:44 GMT Dec 1
- SUP 1: 154.67 Low Dec 01
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Nov 17
- SUP 3: 153.06 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29
The trend set-up in USDJPY is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. A deeper retracement is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support at 155.26, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. The clear break of it exposes the 50-day EMA at 153.06. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of the uptrend would open 158.00.
PRECIOUS METALS: Silver Extends Surge, Gold Rally Stalls amid Dollar Turnaround
Dec-01 19:27
- Expectations firming up for a likely Fed cut next week have helped gold to reaffirm its bullish overall theme. The strong bounce suggests the bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction. Note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of the corrective cycle.
- Further USD weakness early Monday allowed the yellow metal to extend gains, reaching as high as $4,264/oz, a fresh recovery high. Intra-day momentum stalled amid the broader recovery for the US dollar, and spot prices have since been consolidating close to unchanged levels on the session. Overall, sights remain on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
- Meanwhile, spot silver extended its impressive surge to record highs, gaining a further 3.3% as we approach the APAC crossover. It’s mainly projection levels that are used to generate targets for the move at this point, and the next notable level is $59.563, a Fibonacci projection.
- “Shortages in the global market as a result of the recent squeeze in London are still being felt,” said one commodity strategist from ANZ. “With gold taking a breather, it appears investors have turned their attention to silver.”
- BNP noted that investors will be watching how expensive silver is getting relative to gold. “Key to watch is the fact that the gold-silver ratio has got down close to 70.”
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Vehicle Sales, Fed VC Bowman Testimony House
Dec-01 19:17
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/02 Wards Total Vehicle Sales (15.32M, 15.43M)
- 12/02 1000 Fed VC Bowman House Committee testimony on oversight of financial regulators (text, Q&A)
- 12/02 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
