OIL: US OIL: December 31 - Americas End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Lower

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.58/157.89 High Nov 28 / 20 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 155.29 @ 16:44 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 154.67 Low Dec 01
• SUP 2: 154.42 Low Nov 17   
• SUP 3: 153.06 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

The trend set-up in USDJPY is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. A deeper retracement is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support at 155.26, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. The clear break of it exposes the 50-day EMA at 153.06. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of the uptrend would open 158.00.      

• Expectations firming up for a likely Fed cut next week have helped gold to reaffirm its bullish overall theme. The strong bounce suggests the bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction. Note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of the corrective cycle.
• Further USD weakness early Monday allowed the yellow metal to extend gains, reaching as high as $4,264/oz, a fresh recovery high. Intra-day momentum stalled amid the broader recovery for the US dollar, and spot prices have since been consolidating close to unchanged levels on the session. Overall, sights remain on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
• Meanwhile, spot silver extended its impressive surge to record highs, gaining a further 3.3% as we approach the APAC crossover. It’s mainly projection levels that are used to generate targets for the move at this point, and the next notable level is $59.563, a Fibonacci projection.
• “Shortages in the global market as a result of the recent squeeze in London are still being felt,” said one commodity strategist from ANZ. “With gold taking a breather, it appears investors have turned their attention to silver.”
• BNP noted that investors will be watching how expensive silver is getting relative to gold. “Key to watch is the fact that the gold-silver ratio has got down close to 70.”

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 12/02 Wards Total Vehicle Sales (15.32M, 15.43M)
• 12/02 1000 Fed VC Bowman House Committee testimony on oversight of financial regulators (text, Q&A)
• 12/02 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI