IRAN: US Military Just Carried Out Strikes On Qeshm, Bandar Abbas: Fox

February's consumer credit report was largely as expected, with the total credit increase of $9.5B near the $10.3B consensus, with January's revised down slightly to $7.7B from $8.1B prior. 

• The constituent flows were lopsided, however: revolving credit made up just $0.7B (+0.6%), a 3-month low, with nonrevolving $8.8B (+2.8%), a 5-month high. (Revolving makes up 25% of overall consumer credit, largely made up of credit cards; nonrevolving credit is basically made up of student and auto loans.)
• There's been no sign of a surge in either category, with income and wealth, not credit, continuing to fuel consumption, although PCE has shown signs of faltering somewhat. Total credit is up 2.3% Y/Y, which is actually the highest since early 2024, but revolving credit has been decelerating since strong gains late last year: 2.8% in Feb marks a 4-month low. Instead, it's been revolving credit picking up, to 2.1% Y/Y, a 31-month high, which has been driving the overall pickup of late.
• But either way these figures are relatively tame compared with overall GDP, inflation, and household income growth. 

Stock futures extend slightly higher (S&P eminis now up 0.1% on the day) with the USD at fresh lows, as multiple reports appear to suggest movement in both Washington and Tehran in considering the ceasefire proposal floated by Pakistan ahead of the putative 8pm ET deadline set by US President Trump.

• Reuters reporter on X.com: @PHREUTERS "SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL TO REUTERS: TEHRAN POSITIVELY REVIEWING PAKISTAN’S REQUEST FOR A TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE - Reuters News"
• Fox's Jacqui Heinrich on X.com, reaffirming the Axios report earlier that Trump was considering the ceasefire proposal with Iran from Pakistan: "Just had a short call with POTUS: He declined to say how he is feeling about negotiations: “I can't tell you, because right now we're in heated negotiations.” He declined to weigh in on Pakistan’s 2 week deadline extension request – saying he’s about to be briefed fully on it - but said: “I can say this - that I know him very well. He's a highly respected man, all over” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says, "The President has been made been aware of the proposal, and a response will come.""

• RES 4: 1.4051 High Nov 28 
• RES 3: 1.4015 High Dec 2 ‘25
• RES 2: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3967 High Mar 31
• PRICE: 1.3906 @ 17:00 BST Apr 7
• SUP 1: 1.3815 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 1.3760 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3670 Low Mar 23 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3526 Low Mar 09

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. An important resistance at 1.3929, the Jan 16 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish condition and open 1.3985, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant bull cycle. Initial firm support lies at 1.3670, the Mar 23 low.