LOOK AHEAD: US Macro Week Ahead: CPI and PPI With FOMC In Blackout

• Underlying futures well bid but scaling off highs as markets continue to digest US/Iran headlines - sifting rhetoric for facts. Overnight risk sentiment gained after Axios wrote the "U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war," citing officials.
• Iranian spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission tweets “The Axios text is more of an American wish list than a reality, The Americans will not gain anything in a losing war that they did not gain in face-to-face negotiations, Iran is on the trigger and ready, if they do not surrender and do not make the necessary concessions or if they themselves or their dogs try to misbehave, we will give a harsh and regrettable response.”
• Not much of a reaction to lower than expected ADP jobs gain, focus remains on US/Iran headlines - latest: Trump telling NY Post that it's "too soon" to prepare for a peace signing, followed soon after by Trump threatens bombing if Iran doesn’t reopen strait amid report of deal.
• ADP private sector employment disappointed as it increased 109k (sa, cons 120k) in April after a barely revised 61k (initial 62k) in March and 66k in February. The weekly updates had seen a particularly impressive acceleration recently, with three weeks running at circa 160k on a monthly equivalent for the four-week moving average.
• TYM6 trades +16 at 110-27 vs. 110-31 high - briefly through initial resistance of 110-28+, the 20-day EMA (a level pierced on Wednesday’s intraday rally), and 111-09, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of both averages would highlight a possible reversal.
• WTI crude dipped below $90/bbl earlier trades $94.90/bbl now. Bbg US$ index -6.63 at 1188.79. Stocks plowed higher: SPX eminis rose to a new high of 7380.75, Nasdaq to a new high of 25776.39, while the DJIA gained over 1.1% to 49923.00 - still off the Feb 10 high of 50500.71.

• RES 4: 0.7340 1.618 proj of the Apr 29 - May 1 - 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 0.7327 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low
• RES 2: 0.7300 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.7262 1.000 proj of the Apr 29 - May 1 - 5 price swing  
• PRICE: 0.7236 @ 16:48 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 0.7135 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.7066 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6986 Low Apr 13 
• SUP 4: 0.6899 Low Apr 7

AUDUSD has traded to a fresh cycle high today, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 0.7262 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, scope is seen for a move towards 0.7327, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low. Initial support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 0.7135.    

President Trump said Iran agreed to have no nuclear weapons, speaking from the oval office

• “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and they won’t, and they’ve agreed to that, among other things,” Trump tells reporters at the White House
• “We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal,” he says.