STIR: US Firmer Over Past Week, Rest Of $-Bloc Little Changed

The EUR/USD range overnight  was 1.1758-1.1811, Asia is currently trading around 1.1785. The pair extended its gains overnight as the USD looked to be breaking down, for now the move looks to have stalled above 1.1800 as most of the positive outcome from peace talks has already been priced in. I have underappreciated the market's propensity to want to sell USD’s and with risk turning higher erasing the whole move lower on the conflict it seems the market was caught wrong-footed. We are now challenging the top-end of the range toward the 1.1850 area. I suspect we should find it tough going up here initially without any real agreement reached yet and the two parties still pretty far apart on some key issues. First support on the day should be back toward the 1.1715-1.1745 area, where USD bears will be looking for buyers to reemerge to have another crack at the 1.1850 area.

• Danny Citrinowicz on X: “I understand the desire to frame recent developments as a shift within the Iranian regime, or to suggest that the U.S. negotiated with Iran’s “top decision-maker.” But that’s simply not the reality.”
• “Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is a senior figure, but he is not the one who truly holds power in Iran. Real authority lies with Mojtaba Khamenei, alongside the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a small circle of senior security figures closely tied to the Supreme Leader’s office."
• “The broader issue goes far beyond Ghalibaf. Tehran currently sees itself as being in a position of strength. As a result, it has little incentive to make meaningful concessions in negotiations. Iran is not going to give up uranium enrichment, its missile program, or its regional proxy network, regardless of who is formally involved in talks.”
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 1.1610(EU1.46b), 1.1750(EU2b), 1.1800(EU1.64b). Upcoming Close Strikes :  1.1600(EU1.34b April 17), 1.1600(EU1.52b April 20), 1.1895(EU1.28b April 16) - BBG
• The EUR/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 69 Points

Fig 1 : EUR/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Oil prices, in terms of front month WTI, sits well up from earlier lows, last near $91.20/25/bbl. Brent is up a touch, the active month last above $95/bbl. US equity futures are around flat, unwinding very modest gains from earlier. The USD has ticked up in index terms, the BBDXY last above 1194, but this is still very close to recent lows. US TSY futures sit off earlier highs, last 111-19 (session highs were at 111-21). Oil sentiment remains a key driver of cross asset trends. 

• Earlier, for WTI, we dipped to $86.96/bbl, which was fresh lows back to late March. This followed a Trump headline (via a pre-taped interview with FoxNews) that he views the war as very close to being over. We also had earlier comments from Vice President Vance that the US is negotiating with Iran and that the US is comfortable with where things are at, albeit that the mistrust level between both sides means that issues can't be resolved overnight.
• US authorities also stated they intercepted 8 Iranian linked vessels since the start of the blockade. This, along with US/Iran talks, will likely continue to dictate short term market sentiment/risk appetite. There also remains conjecture around how many other ships (from non-Iranian ports) have passed through since the blockade commenced.
• Broadly, US-Iran talks may resume towards the end of the week which are likely to focus on an extension of the ceasefire which appears to be holding. This would give negotiations more time.

A total of 30 companies listed on the A-share market in Q1, compared to 27 over the same period in 2025, raising CNY25.88 billion, an increase of about 60% year-on-year, Shanghai Securities News reported. The IPOs were mainly companies from electronics, high-end equipment, new materials, and new energy. The review process also showed signs of acceleration, with three stock exchanges arranged for 46 companies to come up for listing review, far exceeding the eight firms in the same period last year, while 11 companies were accepted for review, representing an increase of 57% y/y.