SOUTH AFRICA: US Excludes S. Africa From First G20 Sherpas' Meeting
- The African National Congress (ANC) holds its postponed regional conference in Johannesburg, with a couple of party heavyweights competing for the top job. Johannesburg Mayor Dada Morero seeks re-election as regional ANC leader, reportedly with the support of national figures such as Secretary General Fikile Mbalula, and is trying to fend off challenge from Finance MMC Loyiso Masuku, supported by ANC women's and youth structures. This comes as Morero has just survived a challenge from a different corner, as Al Jama-ah's Kabelo Gwamada agreed to withdraw a motion of no confidence against him from the floor of the Johannesburg Council.
- Daily Maverick reported that South Africa was not invited to the first G20 sherpas' meeting hosted by the US on December 15-16. Sources told the newspaper that Pretoria was not planning to gatecrash the meeting, while 'a diplomat from another G20 member state' said that it should, although there was no expectation of any major solidarity gestures.
- SARB's Rashad Cassim said that the central bank will discontinue the Johannesburg Interbank Average Rate (JIBAR) on December 31, 2026 as part of the transition to the new benchmark ZARONIA and 'this timing should come as no surprise' as the central bank gave market participants plenty of time to prepare.
- S&P Global PMI edged higher to 49.0 in November from 48.8 prior, which comes after a significant drop in Absa Manufacturing PMI reported earlier this week. S&P wrote that the last couple of PMIs 'suggest that Q4 may be a softer one for the South African economy' amid 'a modest cooling off'.
- The National Treasury will sell 2035 floating bonds.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up
- RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 6953.75 High Oct 30
- PRICE: 6878.50 @ 07:23 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: 6812.25/6795.74 High Oct 9 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6690.58 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6540.25 Low Oct 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. The fresh cycle high last week confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6974.04 next, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 6795.74, the 20-day EMA. Key pivot support lies at 6690.58, the 50-day EMA.
MNI: SWISS OCT CPI -0.3% M/M, +0.1% Y/Y
- MNI: SWISS OCT CPI -0.3% M/M, +0.1% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT CORE CPI +0.5% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT SERVICES CPI +1.1% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT GOODS CPI -1.6% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT DOMESTIC GOODS CPI +0.5% Y/Y
- SWISS OCT IMPORTED GOODS CPI -1.3% Y/Y
WTI TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $61.29 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 3
- SUP 1: $59.64/55.96 - Low Oct 23 & 30 / Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
Recent gains in WTI futures appear corrective for now, however, note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.05. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. A resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
