US ELECTIONS: DDHQ Calls Presidency For Trump
DDHQ has called the presidency for Republican candidate Donald Trump after previously calling the key swing state of Pennsylvania putting the former president at the 270 electoral college votes to win. If confirmed he will be the first president to serve two non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in 1893.
- Fox has also called Pennsylvania for Trump, but has not yet called the presidency.
- Trump is set to deliver comments to supporters in Palm Beach shortly. A live stream can be found here.
Chart 1. DDHQ Electoral College Projection
Source: DDHQ
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NORWAY: 2025 Budget A Little More Expansionary Than Norges Bank Projections
Norwegian fiscal policy is set to be a little more expansionary than currently assumed by Norges Bank in 2025. On net, this may be slightly hawkish input to the next rate path projection presented in December. The structural, oil-corrected budget deficit (SBD) is forecast to be 10.9% of mainland trend GDP, above the Norges Bank’s 10.7% forecast (and vs 10.4% in 2024).
- As such, the Finance Ministry estimates the 2025 fiscal impulse (the change in the SBD compared to the prior year) at 0.5pp, vs Norges Bank’s 0.3pp projection.
- As a share of the sovereign wealth fund, the SBD is expected to be 2.5%, in line with the Norges Bank’s projection.
- We note that the Finance Ministry’s forecasts for growth appear much more optimistic than the Central Bank (which is likely partly a function of the more expansionary than expected fiscal policy): Mainland GDP growth is expected at 2.3% in 2025, compared to a 1.1% Norges Bank projection.
- The Finance Ministry notes that in recent years “the government has significantly strengthened defence, security and preparedness, and these areas are also prioritized in the budget for 2025”.
- Further details will be released at 0900BST/1000CET, after which we can calculate an initial estimate of Norges Bank FX transactions for next year.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5871.77 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: 5830.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5793.25 @ 07:12 BST Oct 7
- SUP 1: 5735.68 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5666.17 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback appears to have been a correction. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. On the downside, initial support to watch is 5735.68, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 5666.17 the 50-day EMA.
RATINGS: Switzerland Affirmed At Scope On Friday
Rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Scope Ratings affirmed {SZ} Switzerland at AAA; Outlook Stable
