SECURITY: US DefSec Hegseth And Joints Chiefs Caine To Brief Reporters Shortly

The S&P(ESH6) overnight range was 6957.00 - 7006.50, SPX closed -0.33%, Asia is currently trading around 6975. The S&P(ESH6) move stalled around the 7000 area as we await the Jobs numbers tonight. Wealth management stocks followed software lower yesterday as an AI tool debuted for tax strategies, I am sensing a pattern. This morning futures have opened a little higher, E-minis(S&P) +0.20%%, NQZ5 +0.25%. On the day, the payrolls data will have a large say in how it trades, but it looks like we could just chop sideways for the moment as this 6750-7050 range continues to hold, as we await a catalyst to break either side.

• Holger Zschaepitz on X: “The "AI Disruption" trade just came for tax planners: Wealth management stocks crashed today after Altruist debuted an AI tool for tax strategies. The market is pricing in a major threat to the middlemen. Raymond James Financial dropped 8.8% for its worst day since March 2020, while Charles Schwab sank 7.4%% and LPL Financial Holdings lost 8.3%, Intuit 3.7%.”  
• Hedgie X: “If Alphabet were confident their AI capex pays for itself, they'd fund it from cash flow. Issuing century bonds in foreign currencies while committing to $200 billion in spending suggests the math might not be as clean as the earnings calls imply.”
• Michael Green on X: "Correlation between bond yields and equities turned positive nearly a year ago. Bonds are a legitimate diversifier with a positive real return -- value under any model. But nobody is talking about it...”  
• The S&P 500 Index Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days:  86 Points

Fig 1: S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• RES 3: 140.08 - High Jun 13  
• RES 2: 139.05 - High Aug 4 
• RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 131.85 @ 15:38 GMT Feb 10
• SUP 1: 131.06/01 - Low Feb 9 / 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 19
• SUP 3: 130.22 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope  

JGBs were initially pressured on the back of the election results, helping push prices briefly through support at the 2.0% lower Bollinger Band. Prices soon bounced, and the rally firmed further on Tuesday. With Takiachi affirming that tax cuts would not be paid for with additional bond issuance, the ability of markets to rally off lows supports the view that a near-term bottom may be in. This keeps focus on any recovery to 132.20. 

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$700mn of the 3.75% 21 April 2037 bond. The line was last sold on 28 November 2025 for A$700mn. 

• The previous ACGB April 2037 auction attracted solid demand, with the weighted average yield printing 0.27bps through prevailing mid-yields, according to Yieldbroker — continuing the recent trend of firm pricing across ACGB auctions. Moreover, the cover ratio jumped sharply to 3.4933x from 1.9750x at the previous auction, indicating stronger demand.
• Bidding at today’s auction is likely to be shaped by several key factors. The outright yield is 15-20bps higher than the previous auction and is only ~10bps below the cycle high, set this month.
• However, the 3/10 yield curve is around ~20bps flatter than the previous auction and sits around 65bps below its recent high.
• Investor sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds remains wary at best.
• Notably, this bond is included in the XM futures basket, which may lend additional support to demand.
• Overall, firm pricing is still anticipated at today’s auction, given the higher yields and other favourable factors.
• Results are due at 0000 GMT / 1100 AEST.