US DATA: U.Mich Labor Expectations Also On The Mixed Side
Sep-13 14:29
- U.Mich consumer sentiment improved by more than expected in the preliminary September report.
- The labor details were mixed with more expecting broader unemployment to increase but no real change in consumer’s own job loss prospects.
- The share expecting unemployment to increase one year out increased from 37% to 39% for its highest since Jun’23. It peaked at 45% in late 2022 whilst it averaged 28% in 2019, 25% in 2015-19).
- The perceived probability of a respondent losing their job within the next five years ticked a tenth higher to 19% although it continues to broadly trend sideways and is much closer to the 17% averaged in 2019 or 18% in 2015-19).
- See the below charts for how they track the unemployment rate.
- Separately, and anecdotally showing little inclination for early retirees to return to the labor force, the probability of receiving an adequate retirement income slightly extended its sharp increase with a 1pt increase to a new high of 46%.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EGB OPTIONS: Bobl Call Ladder
Aug-14 14:27
OEV4 120/121/122c ladder, bought for 13.5 in 3.4k
EGBS: Spreads Little Changed, Equities Off Highs
Aug-14 14:24
A move away from highs in global equity index futures also seems to be factoring into the aforementioned rally in core global FI markets.
- This allows EGB spreads vs. Bunds to move away from session tights, with the major differentials that we monitor now trading within ~0.5bp of yesterday’s closing levels.
- Still, spread moves remain contained on the day, with today’s U.S. CPI data not providing any meaningful alterations to market pricing of the path of Fed policy rates.
EQUITIES: Far OTM Estoxx put spread
Aug-14 14:22
SX5E (20th Dec) 1800/1700ps 1x2, bought for -0.40 (receive) in 10k.
