GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: US Considering Initial Strike On Iran In Coming Days-NYT
Headlines have crossed from the NYT this morning that US President Trump is leaning towards an initial strike against Iran in coming days (see this link). It notes: "Though no final decisions have been made, advisers said, Mr. Trump has been leaning toward conducting an initial strike in coming days intended to demonstrate to Iran’s leaders that they must be willing to agree to give up the ability to make a nuclear weapon." If this strike proves unsuccessful in terms of Iran giving up its nuclear program, this could be followed by a larger strike in coming months, which would be designed to drive leadership change in the country.
- It also notes: "And behind the scenes, a new proposal is being considered by both sides that could create an off-ramp to military conflict: a very limited nuclear enrichment program that Iran could carry out solely for purposes of medical research and treatments."
- This comes as US and Iran officials are set to meet again on Thursday in Geneva for further talks: Via BBG: "Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he expects to meet US special envoy Steve Witkoff for the talks and reiterated that Iran won’t be pressured by a US military buildup in the region."
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USDCAD TECHS: Reversal Extends
- RES 4: 1.4023 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3977 High Dec 4
- RES 2: 1.3950 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3852/3929 50-day EMA / High Jan 16
- PRICE: 1.3743 @ 16:06 GMT Jan 23
- SUP 1: 1.3734 Low Jan 23
- SUP 2: 1.3710 76.4% retracement of the Dec 26 - Jan 16 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3643 Low Dec 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23 ‘25
Recent weakness in USDCAD appears corrective - for now. However, price has breached support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3833, and continues to trend lower. This highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for a deeper retracement - towards 1.3710, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3929, the Jan 16 high. A move through this hurdle is required to reinstate the recent bull theme.
US TSYS: From Pieces of Ice to Naval Blockades, Geopol Risks Rattle Markets
- Treasuries extended session highs late - revisiting late overnight highs - possibly spurred by geopol risk again, Politico reporting the US is weighing a naval blockade of Cuba oil imports. Note WTI Crude had risen (+1.78 at 61.14 late) as the market assesses Iran-related geopolitical risks amid building military presence in the region alongside disruption to Kazakhstan’s oil output.
- Earlier data saw Treasury futures gain after flash PMI data comes out slightly lower than anticipated (Services steady to a tick higher for Mfg & Composite vs. prior release): January's flash PMIs came in slightly on the soft side of consensus, with Manufacturing at 51.9 (52.0 expected, 51.8 prior) and Services 52.5 (52.9 expected, 52.5 prior).
- Treasury futures extended higher after UofM sentiment gains while inflation expectations for 1Y and 5-10Y recede slightly: Consumer Sentiment, an index of 56.4 represented a 5-month high (better than the 4-month high implied by the initial 54.0). Main change was on the near-term inflation front, with 1Y expectations at 4.0% (4.2% prelim) for the lowest since January 2025 (5-10Y was revised down 0.1pp to 3.3% to remain in the general range of the prior 2 months).
- TYH6 currently +3.5 at 111-22.5 vs. 111-23.5 high. Curves mildly mixed: 2s10s -.402 at 63.293; 5s30s +.569 at 99.609. Initial firm resistance is at the 20-day EMA, currently at 112-03.
- The Japanese yen has been the main topic of conversation in currency markets Friday, as a sharp turn lower for USDJPY has prompted mounting speculation that the Ministry of Finance may have intervened. This has all followed the Bank of Japan holding rates unchanged during the APAC session, and while maintaining a hiking bias, Governor Ueda failed to provide any firm details surrounding the tightening timeline.
- Focus turns to next week's FOMC policy announcement on January 28.
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Pres Trump on Truth Social: "@realDonaldTrump
Canada is against The Golden Dome being built over Greenland, even though The Golden Dome would protect Canada. Instead, they voted in favor of doing business with China, who will “eat them up” within the first year!"
