AMERICAS OIL: US Close Oil Summary: WTI Ticks Up
WTI has risen today as positive sentiment grows around US interest rate cuts following Powell speaking at Jackson Hole symposium. WTI ticked up further in US hours after comments from Trump that he will decide on Russia sanctions in the next two weeks if needed.
- WTI OCT 25 up 0.3% at 63.69$/bbl
- Baker Hughes oil rig count: 411 (-1) - down 72 rigs, or 14.9% on the year. This is the lowest level since mid-July, which itself was the smallest number of oil rigs since Oct. 2021
- Trump administration expects additional tariffs on India as planned next week as a result of the country's Russian crude purchases, White House trade advisor Navarro said.
- Trump said he may decide on sanctions on Russia in two weeks if needed.
- Russia's RIA reports that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that no meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy is planned, 'but Putin is ready to meet him when a summit agenda is ready.
- India pledged to keep buying Russian oil "depending on the financial benefit", according to Vinay Kumar, India's ambassador in Moscow.
- The EPA processed 175 SRE petitions from 38 small refineries for the 2016–2024 compliance years. After review with the U.S. Department of Energy, EPA today granted:
- Canadian oil sands consolidation is on the horizon as Cenovas Energy Inc. announced plans to acquire MEG Energy Corp. in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $7.9 billion including debt.
- US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Aug. 22 speech at Jackson Hole is neutral for global oil price sentiment, Platts said.
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TARIFFS: Navarro: Take EU-US Trade Deal Reports With "Grain Of Salt"
A brief risk-off move on a comment by White House adviser Peter Navarro on Bloomberg TV referring to earlier reports of a EU-US trade deal nearing completion that would include a 15% baseline tariff - Navarro says:
- "We don't negotiate in public. These other countries aspirationally negotiate in public to try to get us to where they want us to go. I would say even though it was reported on Bloomberg, I would take it with a grain of salt. Never assume anything is fixed until the boss says it is fixed... Let's see what happens."
- Navarro's comments weren't quite as concrete as initially feared from the headlines ("*NAVARRO ON US-EU DEAL REPORT: TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT" -bbg) so the risk-off move (worth about 10 points in the S&P) quickly reversed.
- Immediate focus is on a reported EU member state vote on tariff countermeasures Thursday in case a deal can't be reached with the US by Aug 1.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8698 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 0.8653 @ 16:07 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 0.8626 20- day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Jul 7
- SUP 3: 0.8561 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high. Support to watch is 0.8626, the 20-day EMA.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage slips to $189.632B this afternoon from $196.374B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 30. Usage had fallen to $54.772B on Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021 - compares to July 1: $460.731B highest usage since December 31.
