AMERICAS OIL: "*US CHALLENGER NOV. JOB CUTS RISE 23.5% Y/Y

President Emmanuel Macron, delivering a speech to the Maritime Economy Conference in La Rochelle, says that France must "maintain its commercial ambitions". Comes as the gov't faces pressure from opposition to push up levies on corporations and the wealthy as the intractable budget debates continue. Plans to hold a vote on the revenue section of the 2026 draft state budget today fell by the wayside amid disagreements over the introduction of a wealth tax and amendments backed by the far-left and far-right, looking to increase taxes on multinationals. 

• Macron says, "We can have debates, and they are legitimate and necessary in the life of a country to achieve fair growth and find the right balance [but we must stop] preventing the largest companies from moving forward." Macron adds, "You do not build up a country by attacking its champions."
• The National Assembly has today taken up the debate on the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS). Much like with the PLF, there is a significant prospect that no agreement will be reached in time. Almost 2,500 amendments have been tabled, and a vote must take place on 12 November as the PLFSS must be sent on to the Senate due to constitutional deadlines.
• Speaking to deputies from the centrist Renaissance group earlier today, PM Sebastien Lecornu is quoted as saying there are "some issues on which compromises can be made" but others "on which there will be no compromises, because we're not going to cripple the economy." One of the major compromises, a delay to the implementation of the 2023 pension reforms, will be taken up in the National Assembly at the end of the week. 

• In the FI space, Bund futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday. A bear cycle remains intact for now. The move down that started on Oct 17 still appears corrective and has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. However, price has pierced a key support at 129.13, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA signals scope for a deeper retracement and open 128.92, 61.8% of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg. First important resistance is 129.73, Oct 28 high.
• The trend structure in Gilt futures remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next upside objective is 94.00. Clearance of this level would open 94.24, a 1.618 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the contract is overbought, a short-term pullback would allow this trend condition to unwind. Initial firm support to watch 92.81, the 20-day EMA.

• USDCAD (+0.18%) is rising for the fourth consecutive session, propelling the pair to its highest level since April 10, above 1.4080. Recent price action has been highlighting a reversal of the corrective bear leg between Oct 14 - 29. A recent doji candle on Oct 29 signalled a short-term reversal, providing an additional bullish impulse to the underlying uptrend.
• Today’s breach of the bull trigger places the next focus on 1.4111, the April 10 high and 1.4167, the 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg.
• The noted risk pessimism will be weighing on the Canadian dollar today, however, today’s Federal Budget remains an additional key risk; Citi see a "significantly more expansionary than previous" annual budget - and they see markets putting particular importance on the estimated budget deficit for the 2025 and 2026 fiscal years.
• They see these estimates being even wider than suggested during the election campaign, with some forecasts as high as C$100bln (reflecting weaker growth and reduced tax revenues, not solely increased spending). They conclude that the composition of new spending will be important for growth and any BoC reaction.
• Separately, Canada will release jobs data for October on Friday, with analysts citing the focus on the unemployment rate, where further increases from the current 7.1% could fuel dovish bets.