EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
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BOC: 25bp Cut Fully Priced, MNI Instant Answers Look For Future Rate Signals
OIS meeting-dated pricing sees around 98% implied probability of a 25bp cut by the BOC at today's announcement (0945ET). Beyond that there's a second cut fully priced by the January meeting. See table below.
- We'll provide our Instant Answers and a comparison of the rate announcement statement vs July's. Recall that the press conference will start at 1030ET.
BOC Links (will go live at 0945ET):
MNI's Instant Answers for the BOC decision focus on any signals on future rate moves sent from the 0945ET release. They are:
- Target for overnight rate:
- Does the Bank say the case for further rate reductions is strong?
- Does the Bank reiterate it could LOWER rates if the economy weakens and inflation is contained?
- Does the Bank mention core inflation has been elevated?
- Does the Bank say growth or job market prospects have weakened?
- Does the Bank say it may be less forward looking with policy?
| Meeting | Current | After July BOC (Jul 31) | Change since then | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) | Incremental Chg (bp) |
| Sep 17 2025 | 2.57 | 2.70 | -13.8 | -24.4 | -24.4 |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2.42 | 2.65 | -22.7 | -38.6 | -14.2 |
| Dec 10 2025 | 2.34 | 2.60 | -25.6 | -46.6 | -8.0 |
| Jan 28 2026 | 2.31 | -50.4 | -3.8 | ||
| Mar 18 2026 | 2.26 | -55.2 | -4.8 |
EQUITY OPTIONS: EU Bank Put Spread
SX7E (17th Oct) 220/210ps, bought for 1.65 and 1.7 in 6k.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6750.50 2.000 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6748.50 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 2: 6712.33 1.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 6700.00 Round number resistance
- PRICE: 6667.50 @ 14:10 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: 6559.62 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6506.50 Low Sep 5
- SUP 3: 6452.53 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6417.25 Low Aug 12
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. A fresh cycle high yesterday reinforces current bullish conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6700.00 handle next and 6712.33, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch is 6569.89, the 20-day EMA.
