EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls

We have published the MNI US Payroll Previews, found in full here. 

• The June payrolls report sees a rare Thursday release at 0830ET owing to Independence Day on Friday, as part of a particularly heavy docket that also includes ISM Services.
• There are few alternative June labor indicators to go off as the release also lands early in the month, with the most notable being a pronounced uplift in jobless claims.
• Broad Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls rising a seasonally adjusted 110k in June after 139k in May, with private dealer analysts a little lower at 103k and the Bloomberg Whisper currently at 100k.
• Immigration curbs mean these growth rates will be seen in a relatively stronger light than last year.
• The unemployment rate is expected to round to 4.3%, not hard from 4.244% prior, for what would be a fresh cycle high. The median FOMC participant now sees 4.5% for 4Q25 vs 4.4% in the March SEP.
• Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% M/M after a strong May whilst hours are seen unchanged.
• A firmly dovish build-up to the release currently sees Fed Funds futures price 5bp of cuts for July plus a cumulative 29bp for Sept and 69bp for Dec. The latter compares to the median FOMC participant eyeing 50bp of cuts in 2H25, including seven committee members looking for no rate cuts at all this year.  

Lagged monthly BoE data points to foreign participants selling gilts for the fourth month in five in May, with local financial institutions adding to their holdings for a tenth consecutive month and domestic private investors adding to their holdings for the fourth month in five.

• Citi suggest that one possible explanation for foreign investors shedding their gilt exposure is “the strength of GBP/USD, prompting net selling to meet slow-moving FX reserve allocations set in USD”.
• This pure flow element is probably intensified by worry surrounding the UK’s fiscal fragility.
• While the domestic bid has provided satisfactory demand for gilts in recent weeks, aided by moves to shorten the WAM of paper on offer, the DMO would no doubt prefer to see a more receptive international investor base, particularly with issuance risks skewed higher over the medium-term.

Fig. 1: Net Change In Gilt Holdings Of Different Investor Cohorts (GBP mln)

Source: MNI - Market News/BoE

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 146.19/148.03 High Jun 24 / 23
• RES 1: 145.04 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 143.16 @ 14:14 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 142.68 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 4: 141.49 Low Apr 23    

A bear threat in USDJPY remains intact and today’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlighted a reversal of the recent recovery. Note too that price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the averages strengthens a bearish threat and opens 142.12, the May 27 low and a key short-term support. On the upside, a move above 148.03, the Jun 23 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.