Chicago Business Barometer™ - Advances To 47.1 In July

The Chicago Business Barometer™ produced with MNI advanced 6.7 points to 47.1 in July. This was the largest increase in thirteen months, bringing the index to the highest since March 2025. However, the index has still been below 50 for twenty consecutive months. 

The increase was driven by a sharp rise in New Orders and Order Backlogs. Meanwhile, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries saw small decreases.

NEW ORDERS AT HIGHEST SINCE MAY '22

New Orders expanded 14.6 points, the ninth largest increase on record. The index is now at its highest since May 2022. 

Order backlogs rose 12.9 points, more than unwinding the declines seen in May and June.

PRODUCTION AT LOWEST SINCE JANUARY

Production softened 1.2 points to 40.0, the lowest level since January 2025. 

Employment idled 0.4 points to 41.6. The index has now been below 50 for twenty consecutive months. 

Supplier deliveries fell 0.2 points. The index has been above 50 since February 2025.

PRICES PAID REVERSE JUNE INCREASE

Prices paid reversed 8.3 points to 76.5, fully unwinding June’s rise. For the fifth month in six, no respondents reported lower prices paid.

Inventories increased 4.5 points.

The survey ran from July 1 to July 14.