IRAN: US and Iran Reach Deal but Need Trump's Final Approval: Axios

• -5,000 TYM6 110-27, sell through 110-27.5 post time bid at 0957:05ET, DV01 $324,800.
• The 10Y contract trades 110-24.5 last (-8.5)

The Conference Board’s labor differential has shown some stabilization in recent months after its trend deterioration, although continues to point to a softening in the labor market that isn’t yet reflected by the BLS unemployment rate. It’s in contrast to more resilient findings in weekly ADP and jobless claims data. 

• The Conference Board’s labor differential improved a little to 7.5 in April from a marginally revised 6.1 (initially reported 5.8) in March.
• It technically sees a second monthly improvement off a recent low of 5.7 in February although in trend terms it has plateaued in recent months with an average of 7.1 since November.
• It’s a low level by recent year standards and continues to point to trend upwards pressure in the unemployment rate.
• The latest driver was from improved prospects of jobs being hard to get (fell to 19.8% after the 21.3% in March as its highest since early 2021) whilst jobs being plentiful was little changed (27.3% after 27.4%). 

OI data points to net short setting on Monday, as gilt futures sold off, signalling slightly higher conviction on the part of market participants, even though the contract failed to break Friday lows (that level has given way today).

• OI rose by ~7K lots or ~0.6% after several days of much more modest movement in the metric.
• Ongoing risks surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and reintroduction of focus on UK political risk will have provided some with greater conviction in establishing shorts.