STIR: Uptick In Unemployment Rate Drives Dovish Move In Fed Pricing
Nov-20 14:03
Dovish reaction in the U.S. front end following the NFP release, with the uptick in the unemployment rate (which was more pronounced in unrounded terms) outweighing some of the positive surprises seen elsewhere in the data.
- We highlighted a likely focus on the unemployment rate reading in our preview. This would have only been heightened by the BLS adjustments to the upcoming release schedule (next round of NFP data isn’t due until after the Dec FOMC), which reduced Fed visibility ahead of their next decision.
- Fed Funds futures through the end of ’26 are 3-5bp more dovish in light of the data, showing 9bp of easing for December, 23bp through January, 33bp through March, 40bp through April and 56bp through June.
- SOFR futures now flat to +3.5 vs. flat to -2.0 ahead of the data. SOFR-implied terminal rate pricing ~3.05% vs. ~3.10% pre-data, multi-week range of 2.80-3.20% unchallenged,
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Oct-21 13:56
- "*LEBLANC 'SURPRISED' BY REPORT CANADA, US NEARING TRADE DEAL" - bbg
- Follows the Globe & Mail report earlier today - had said a deal "could be ready for approval at APEC summit".
- Leblanc adds that it's overoptimistic to expect a trade deal in a few days, but is confident progress is being made. Meanwhile more work to be done.
