OIL: Upcoming OPEC Decision Concerning Oil Market

The NZD had a range Friday night of 0.5949 - 0.5983, Asia is opening around 0.5960

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that US trade talks, especially with Asia are “moving along very well” in an interview with ABC.
• (Bloomberg) –”With global growth slowing due to increased political uncertainty, trade wars, MUFG analysts see the New Zealand dollar weakening, while the euro will benefit further from global investors rushing to safety. They target 1.96 for EUR/NZD long with stop at 1.87”
• “Even if trade deals/arrangements are put in place to partially reverse tariffs in the near-term, they are unlikely to be sufficient to prevent the global economy from slowing further in the near-term which leaves risks tilted to the downside for higher beta commodity currencies such as the NZD,” they concluded.
• The NZD traded sideways at the end of last week with support holding around 0.5940, conditions were there for a corrective retracement lower but as of yet the NZD has remained well supported.
• The price action continues to suggest though that dips will probably find demand, first support on the day is 0.5900 then 0.5800/50.
• CFTC data show Asset managers have slowed their pace of buying last week, Leveraged funds though have been using dips to reduce their shorts.
• Data : BBG April NZ Economic Survey

Fig 1: CFTC NZD Holdings

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

• China's National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Ministry of Commerce and the PBOC will hold a joint press briefing today at 10am in Beijing as per a notice from the State Council Information Office.  
• The topic of the press conference will be policies on stabilizing employment and ensuring that growth remains stable whilst promoting high quality development.  
• Authorities on Friday vowed to keep improving the range of policies available to them to support the economy and indicated that plans developed are to be brought forward.  
• China's equity futures are flat this morning in expectation and the CGB 10yr is at 1.66% where it has been stationary over recent days.  

• Over the weekend China released their industrial profits for March.
• Rising +2.6% YoY this took the gain for the first quarter to +0.80%
• For China’s economy to gain momentum industrial profits need to strengthen, a move that would breathe confidence across businesses in the face of the trade war.
• Manufacturing companies focused on the technology space saw their profits rise +3.5% on the back of a decline of over -5% in the first two months of the year.
• More than 50% of sectors reported profit growth in March.
• On Friday China’s authorities stated that they are readying ‘emergency plans’  to protect the economy from external shocks on account of the US trade war  as it aims to achieve 5% economic growth this year.
• The week ahead sees Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI’s released for April with market forecasts suggesting that manufacturing PMIs may slip into contraction.