US TSYS: Unwinding Early Tariff-Tied Headline Risk

• 10,000 TYM5 111/113 call spds, 34 vs. 110-19.5/0.26%

The April Beige Book summary of Inflation conditions: "Prices increased across Districts, with six characterizing price growth as modest and six characterizing it as moderate, similar to the previous report. Most Districts noted that firms expected elevated input cost growth resulting from tariffs."

• Prior edition (Feb): "Prices increased moderately in most Districts, but several Districts reported an uptick in the pace of increase relative to the previous reporting period. "
• The latest edition suggests "most" businesses will attempt to pass along tariff-related price increases to consumers, but the ability to do so may vary due to softer demand in some sectors - a potential contrast with the high-inflation pandemic reopening period where sellers were easily able to pass on price increases:
• "Many firms have already received notices from suppliers that costs would be increasing. Firms reported adding tariff surcharges or shortening pricing horizons to account for uncertain trade policy. Most businesses expected to pass through additional costs to customers. However, there were reports about margin compression amid increased costs, as demand remained tepid in some sectors, especially for consumer-facing firms."

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.55/164.19 High Apr 14 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 161.88 @ 16:19 GMT Apr 23 
• SUP 1: 160.99/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9    
• SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support 
• SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4 

EURJPY is in consolidation mode. The recent pullback appears corrective and trend conditions remain bullish. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.