GOLD TECHS: Unwinding An Overbought Trend Condition
- RES 4: $4443.8 - 3.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $4141.7 @ 07:27 BST Oct 22
- SUP 1: $4004.3 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $3944.9 - Low Oct 9
- SUP 3: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2
- SUP 4: $3796.7 - 50-day EMA
A sharp pullback in Gold yesterday appears corrective - for now. Note that the trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at $4031.4, has been pierced. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at $3796.7. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
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GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3744.2 - 1.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: $3707.6 - High Sep 17
- PRICE: $3702.8 @ 07:25 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: $3614.0 - Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: $3577.9 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3473.5 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20
Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and short-term pullbacks are for now, considered corrective. A fresh all-time high, once again last week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3744.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3577.9, the 20-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $67.07 @ 07:10 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures remain above the Sep 5 low. Recent short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 174.50 High Sep 19
- PRICE: 173.98 @ 07:15 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: 173.01/171.83 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1
The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last Thursday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.01, the 20-day EMA.
