EU REAL ESTATE: Unibail (URWFP: Baa2/BBB+/BBB+u): FY24
Good results. Dividend increase is slight negative but leverage has been reduced significantly.
• EBITDA €2.3bn +6.9%; +7% like-for-like
• Net Rental Income €2.3bn +4.7%; +6.7% like-for-like
• Slight negative for Bondholders: Dividend is increasing from €2.5 to €3.5
• Net Debt/EBITDA 8.7x vs 9.3x in 2023. Now below the 9x which Fitch wanted for an Upgrade.
• € 1.6 of disposals at book value; €0.6bn acquisitions
• IFRS LTV 41.7% will be 40.8% proforma disposals. At lowest level since 2019.
• EPRA LTV 53.8% vs 54.4%
• Interest Coverage ICR 4.2x unchanged
• Shopping Centre vacancy at lowest level since 2017: 4.8%
• Gross Value €49.7bn: Shopping centres +0.2% in value; US fell -4.3% vs EU +1.3% and UK +4.9% - the company has been reducing exposure to the US.
• 36 months of liquidity: €13.9bn available incl €5.3bn cash on hand
• Over last 4 years, has divested €6.4bn giving €4.7bn net debt reduction to €19.5bn
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EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 164.90 THigh Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 2: 163.43 High Jan 9
- RES 1: 162.43 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 161.44 @ 07:10 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 160.04 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11
The recent move down in EURJPY appears corrective, however the cross did once again, initially trade lower Monday, and this has resulted in a breach of support at 160.91, the Jan 2 low. The next support to watch is 159.51, 61.8% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. For bulls, a reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective cycle and refocus attention on 164.90, the Dec 30 high. First resistance is at 162.43, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 92.88 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 91.86 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 91.58 High Jan 8
- RES 1: 90.31 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 89.30 @ Close Jan 13
- SUP 1: 88.96 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
- SUP 3: 88.53 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
- SUP 4: 88.19 3.236 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. The latest move down also highlights an acceleration of the trend. Sights are on 88.87 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 90.31, last Thursday’s intraday high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 91.86. The EMA is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.
USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 158.87 High Jan 10
- PRICE: 157.61 @ 06:49 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 156.78/02 20-day EMA / Low Dec 31
- SUP 2: 154.71 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 154.44 Low Dec 19
- SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17
The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces the bullish theme. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.78, the 20-day EMA.
