SPAIN DATA: Unexpected Deceleration In Inflation With Sharp Slowdown In Core
Spanish November flash HICP came in clearly below consensus estimates at 3.2% Y/Y (vs 3.7% cons; 3.5% prior) and -0.6% M/M (vs -0.1% cons; 0.3% prior) including below the lowest analyst estimate (3.4%). The national CPI was also lower than consensus at 3.2% Y/Y (vs 3.6% cons; 3.5% prior). On a monthly basis, CPI was -0.4% M/M (vs 0.1% cons; 0.3% prior).
- Core CPI decelerated a further seven-tenths to 4.5% Y/Y (vs 5.0% cons; 5.2% prior) after coming down six-tenths last month.
- Downside drivers to the headline rate came from falls in fuel and package tour prices, while electricity contributed to the upside.
- While there are only limited details available in the flash Spanish release, overall, this month’s deceleration seems broad based, with headline and core both decreasing clearly.
- The chart below plots headline vs core CPI:
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
SPAIN DATA: Downside Surprise in Core CPI
Spanish October flash HICP came in below consensus estimates at at 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.8% cons; 3.3% prior) and 0.3% M/M (vs 0.5% cons; 0.6% prior). The national CPI also below consensus at 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.9% cons; 3.5% prior). On monthly basis, CPI was 0.3% M/M (vs 0.7% cons; 0.2% prior).
- Most important however was the six-tenths deceleration in core CPI to 5.2% (vs 5.6% cons; 5/8% prior).
- Downside drivers to the headline rate came from fuel and food/non-alcoholic beverage prices, while electricity contributed to the upside.
- Overall, this month's deceleration seems broad-based, with energy inflating less than expected and services/core goods components bringing down the core rate.
- The chart below plots headline vs core CPI:
USDCAD TECHS: Heading North
- RES 4: 1.4070 1.236 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3987 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
- RES 1: 1.3881 High Oct 27
- PRICE: 1.3858 @ 08:01 BST Oct 30
- SUP 1: 1.3790 Low Oct 26
- SUP 2: 1.3699/3606 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3477 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 rally
- SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
The USDCAD trend needle continues to point North and the pair is trading at its recent highs. The focus is on 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high. Last week’s break of resistance at the Mar 10 high of 1.3862, strengthens the bullish condition. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting an uptrend and reflecting positive market sentiment. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.3699, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
MNI: SWISS KOF OCT ECONOMIC BAROMETER 95.8
- MNI: SWISS KOF OCT ECONOMIC BAROMETER 95.8
