US DATA: U.Mich Consumer Sentiment Slips With High Likelihood Of Job Losses
Sep-12 14:23
- Consumer sentiment surprised lower in the U.Michigan preliminary September report, at 55.4 (cons 58) after 58.2 in Aug.
- The press release (https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) notes more pronounced easing in lower and middle income consumers along with unprompted comments about tariffs.
- "This month’s easing in economic views was particularly strong among lower and middle income consumers. Buying conditions for durables improved, while all other index components fell. Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation. Likewise, consumers perceive risks to their pocketbooks as well; current and expected personal finances both eased about 8% this month.
- Trade policy remains highly salient to consumers, with about 60% of consumers providing unprompted comments about tariffs during interviews, little changed from last month. Still, sentiment remains above April and May 2025 readings, immediately after the initial announcement of reciprocal tariffs."
- Also of note, the featured chart shows still high perceived probability of losing a job:
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OPTIONS: Expiries for Aug14 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Aug-13 14:20
- EUR/USD: $1.1500(E2.8bln), $1.1590-00(E1.8bln), $1.1625-35(E829mln), $1.1645-50(E1.3bln), $1.1660-65(E943mln), $1.1695-02(E4.9bln), $1.1710-15(E1.2bln), $1.1750(E774mln)
- USD/JPY: Y145.00($924mln), Y146.00($616mln), Y146.65-85($1.0bln), Y147.00-20($1.3bln), Y148.15-30($1.2bln), Y149.00($1.2bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.2975-00(Gbp1.2bln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8690-05(E1.1bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6575(A$516mln), $0.6600(A$1.3bln)
- NZD/USD: $0.6000-11(N$636mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3860-70($768mln)
BONDS: Gilt/Bunds Continues To Oscillate Around 190bp
Aug-13 14:18
10-Year gilt/Bunds is ~3bp wider, as the spread continues to oscillate either side of 190bp.
- Zooming out, the multi-week range remains intact, with gilt bears unable to force a break above 200bp during a test back in July. The round number presents the initial meaningful upside target.
- Meanwhile, the August closing low at 184.9bp presents the initial downside area of interest.
- A hawkish round of UK labour market data (vs. expectations heading in) and last week’s BoE vote split-rhetoric combination removed some of the downside risks to the spread, although the likely slowing of BoE QT (announcement due in September) seemingly removes some widening risk.
- Elsewhere, ongoing UK fiscal fragility remains a key theme, but that is somewhat offset by German fiscal developments and related issuance risks over the medium-term.
- This has led to a relatively tight range for the spread in recent weeks.
CROSS ASSET: US Cash Treasuries are trading ritcher
Aug-13 14:15
- US Cash Treasuries are trading richer, the belly outperforms, but it is more mixed on the curves.
- The US 2s/10s is flatter, and the 5s/10s is steeper, but looking closer at the charts, these are mostly unchanged overall.
- Main initial resistance in TYU5 is at 112.15+, the August high, and highest printed level since 1st May.
- The latest round of Buying Treasury Futures could see the USDJPY drift to 147.00, so far only managed a 147.14 low.
