US DATA: U.Mich 1Y Inflation Expectations Hold Dip But 5-10Y Highest Since June
Oct-24 14:13
- Consumer sentiment: 53.6 (cons 54.5, prelim 55.0) after 55.1 in September
- 1Y inflation expectations: 4.6% (cons & prelim 4.6) in Oct final after 4.7% in September – lowest since June
- 5-10Y inflation expectations: 3.9% (cons & prelim 3.7) in Oct final after 3.7% in September – highest since June
- From the press release: “Long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.7% last month to 3.9% this month but remains below this year’s high point seen in April. This month’s increase in long-run inflation expectations was driven primarily by independents and Republicans. Inflation uncertainty—as measured by the interquartile range of expectations—ticked up for both time horizons this month.”
- Re the point on the political split behind 5-10Y expectations, the republican response was unrevised at 2.5%, up 0.1pp from Sept, whilst the independent reading was revised +0.2pp to 3.9% (for also a 0.2pp increase on the month). With democrats unrevised and unchanged at 4.5%, the 0.2pp uptick in the overall figure from 3.7% to 3.9% was either exaggerated by rounding or it came with relatively greater collection of democrat and independent responses.
- The survey period was Sep 23-Oct 20 vs to Oct 6 from the preliminary reading.
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US TSYS: Post-New Home Sales React
Sep-24 14:06
- Treasuries extending session lows after the much better than expected rise in new home sales ($ MoM figure) - nearing yesterday's low.
- Currently, the Dec'25 10Y trades -6 at 112-22 (yld 4.1369% +.0308) vs. 112-21.5 low - nearing technical at 112-205/112-155 (Low Sep 22 / High Aug 5 and 14). resistance above at 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger.
- Curves mildly steeper: 2s10s +2.913 at 54.711, 5s30s +.261 at 105.195.
- US$ index near highs, Bbg's BBDXY +6.31 at 1201.98.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Bull Cycle Intact
Sep-24 14:06
- RES 4: 6812.29 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 3: 6800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6787.63 1.382 proj of the Aug 1 - 15 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 6756.75 High Sep 22
- PRICE: 6709.50 @ 14:55 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 6625.74 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6577.25 Low Sep 10
- SUP 3: 6506.07 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6417.25 Low Aug 12
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high on Monday. Price has recently breached the 6700.00 handle and this signals scope for an extension towards 6787.63, a Fibonacci projection point. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Initial support to watch lies at 6625.74, the 20-day EMA.
MNI: US AUG NEW HOME SALES +20.5% TO 0.800M SAAR
Sep-24 14:00
- MNI: US AUG NEW HOME SALES +20.5% TO 0.800M SAAR
- US JUL NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 0.664M SAAR
