SECURITY: Ukraine, UK, France, And Turkey Hold Meeting On Black Sea Security
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that representatives from Ukraine, the UK, France, and Turkey are holding a meeting on Black Sea security today, per Reuters. Zelenskyy also noted that talks today with US officials on a minerals agreement were "positive", adding that more meetings were expected throughout the week.
- NATO SecGen Mark Rutte said after a meeting with Zelenskyy: "We will continue to help Ukraine so it can defend today and deter future aggression, ensuring a just and lasting peace".
- The meetings come amid signs that the Trump administration may be losing patience in Russia's approach to the ceasefire process. President Donald Trump reiterated to reporters yesterday that Zelenskyy and former US President Joe Biden are responsible for allowing the war to happen but included Russian President Vladimir Putin on the list: “Biden could have stopped it, and Zelenskyy could have stopped it, and Putin should have never started it. Everybody’s to blame.”
- Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff said US-Russia talks could be on the "verge of something that would be very, very important for the world at large", but a breakthrough appears dependent on Russia’s greenlighting a truce or the US pivoting to more pressure on Moscow.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Kommersant today: "It is not easy to agree the key components of a settlement... We are well aware of what a mutually beneficial deal looks like, which we have never rejected, and what a deal looks like that could lead us into another trap,"
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
